肿瘤预防与治疗2025，Vol.38Issue(2)：98-106,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-0904.2025.02.002
1990～2021年中国女性乳腺癌疾病负担趋势及危险因素分析
Disease Burden Trends and Risk Factors of Breast Cancer in Chinese Women from 1990 to 2021
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the disease burden of breast cancer in Chinese women and compared it with the global situation based on the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)Data 2021,so as to provide evidence for the formulation of relevant public health policies and prevention and treatment strategies in China.Methods:We retrieved the data of female breast cancer in China and the world from 1990 to 2021 from the GBD database.The disease burden and risk factors of female breast cancer in China and the world were analyzed by standardized incidence,standardized mortality and standardized disa-bility-adjusted life years(DALYs).The Joinpoint model was used to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)to analyze the trend of disease burden.The autoregressive integrated moving av-erage model was adopted to predict the statistics of breast cancer in women from 2022 to 2036.The driving factors of cancer burden change were further analyzed by decomposition analysis.Results:From 1990 to 2021,the standardized incidence of breast cancer in Chinese women increased to 37.00/100,000(AAPC=2.42,95%CI:2.24～2.60),the standardized mor-tality rate decreased to 8.24/105(AAPC=-0.29,95%CI:-0.44～-0.14),and the DALYs rate decreased by 6.67%.The age group with the highest number of cases was 50～54 years,followed by 45～49 years and 55～59 years.It was predic-ted that by 2036,the incidence rate would increase to 46.00 per 105 and the mortality rate would decrease to 8.17 per 105;the main risk factors included high red meat intake(contributing to 1.13%of mortality rate)and high body mass index(contributing to 14.39%of DALYs rate).The decomposition analysis showed that the increase in incidence was mainly driv-en by epidemiological changes(79.95%)and population growth(25.09%),and aging and population growth were the con-tributing factors to the decline in mortality.Conclusion:In recent years,the standardized incidence of breast cancer in Chi-nese women has increased,but the standardized mortality rate and DALYs rate have decreased.It is predicted that the inci-dence of breast cancer among Chinese women will increase by 2036,but the mortality rate is expected to continue to decline.The priority of breast cancer prevention and treatment are screening women aged 45～59 years,control risk factors such as high red meat intake and high body mass index,and advocate healthy lifestyles and eating habits.关键词
女性乳腺癌/发病/死亡/预测/危险因素/中国Key words
Female breast cancer/Onset of disease/Death/Prediction/Risk factor/China分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
鲍娇玉,刘存,陈文君,马晓东,李向云..1990～2021年中国女性乳腺癌疾病负担趋势及危险因素分析[J].肿瘤预防与治疗,2025,38(2):98-106,9.基金项目
This study was supported by Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(No.ZR2024QH052). 山东省自然科学基金(编号:ZR2024QH052) （No.ZR2024QH052）
