统计与决策2025，Vol.41Issue(4)：29-34,6.DOI:10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2025.04.005
基于误差修正LMDI-SD方法的数字经济规模预测
Prediction of Digital Economy Scale Based on Error Correction LMDI-SD Method
摘要
Abstract
In order to accurately predict the scale of digital economy,this paper adopts the economic data from 2017 to 2020 to study the key driving factors of China's digital economy development from 2017 to 2020 and predict the scale of digital econo-my from 2021 to 2025 based on the Logarithmic Mean Dirichlet Decomposition(LMDI)and System Dynamics(SD)models.The findings go as the following:(1)The error correction LMDI-SD method has higher accuracy than the grey prediction model and ex-ponential smoothing model.(2)The scale of China's digital economy will maintain rapid development during the"14th Five-Year Plan"period,from 45.5 trillion yuan in 2021 to 76.46 trillion yuan in 2025,with a compound growth rate of 13.86%.(3)The in-tensity effect of the digital economy has gradually become the main factor affecting the scale of China's digital economy.关键词
数字经济/LMDI/系统动力学模型/预测Key words
digital economy/LMDI/system dynamics model/prediction分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王方,武承炫..基于误差修正LMDI-SD方法的数字经济规模预测[J].统计与决策,2025,41(4):29-34,6.基金项目
陕西省创新能力支撑计划(2022KJXX-112 （）
2024ZC-YBXM-119) （）
陕西省哲学社会科学重大理论与现实问题研究项目(2022ND0389) （2022ND0389）
西安市科学技术局科技成果转化示范高校院所建设项目(23KJCGSFGXYS0003) （23KJCGSFGXYS0003）
