农业展望2024，Vol.20Issue(10)：62-68,7.
经济政策不确定性对中国农产品价格的影响
Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Prices of Agricultural Products in China
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,the international economic situation has changed abruptly,various"black swan"events have occurred frequently,the national economy has shown a downward trend,and the problems of national security and food security have gradually become prominent.In order to systematically explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the price of agricultural products in China and its transmission mechanism,this paper selected corn and wheat as representatives,based on the economic policy uncertainty index of 13 major grain producing areas in China from 2011 to 2021,as well as the production price index of corn and wheat,through the intermediary effect model,from a long-term perspective,the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the production price indices of corn and wheat and its transmission mechanism were discussed.The empirical results showed that in the long run,there is a significant negative correlation between China's economic policy uncertainty and the production price index of corn and wheat,and the impact has a partial mediating effect,which can be transmitted through the export quantity of corn and wheat.Based on this,the following policy suggestions to stabilize the prices of agricultural products were put forward:first,maintain the stability of the import and export markets of agricultural products;second,reduce the dependence of agricultural prices on exports,and continue to promote the"dual circulation"pattern of agricultural products consumption;third,making policies related to agricultural products should be based on market conditions,and formulate targeted policies for different agricultural products;fourth,improve the economic risk monitoring and early warning system and enhance the stability and continuity of economic policies.关键词
经济政策不确定性/生产价格指数/面板回归模型/中介效应模型/负相关性/玉米/小麦Key words
economic policy uncertainty/production price index/panel data regression model/intermediary effect model/negative correlation/corn/wheat引用本文复制引用
陈雯,谢云..经济政策不确定性对中国农产品价格的影响[J].农业展望,2024,20(10):62-68,7.基金项目
湖北省教育厅项目"家庭农场土地流转的契约问题研究"(编号:22Y046) （编号:22Y046）
