中国乳业Issue(2)：2-9,8.DOI:10.12377/1671-4393.25.02.01
2024年中国奶业经济形势回顾及2025年展望与发展思考
China's Dairy Economy:2024 Review,2025 Outlook
摘要
Abstract
China's dairy industry faced severe challenges in 2024.Raw milk prices plummeted to historic lows,resulting in widespread losses for dairy farms,particularly impacting independent farms.While overall milk production saw mixed trends of increases and decreases,the oversupply situation persisted.Dairy product consumption also declined significantly.Looking ahead to 2025,import volumes are expected to rebound,further contributing to the oversupply in the domestic market.The dynamics of raw milk production and supply-demand balance will depend largely on the production adjustments made by dairy processors within their own and controlled farms.As a large number of independent farms exit the market,the profits enjoyed by processors due to low raw milk prices will diminish significantly,reducing their incentive to maintain the oversupply and low prices.To facilitate the recovery and high-quality development of the dairy industry,the primary task is to address the core contradiction and promote a swift rebalancing of supply and demand.The bottom line is to protect the survival of independent farms,reinforcing the livelihood aspect of the dairy sector.Relaxing processing market entry regulations to weaken monopolies,forcing the establishment of benefit-sharing mechanisms,and actively exploring diverse models of farmer-led processing are crucial steps forward.关键词
奶业经济/供需关系/垄断/利益联结机制/社会牧场Key words
dairy economy/supply-demand relation/monopoly/benefit-sharing mechanisms/independent farm引用本文复制引用
刘长全..2024年中国奶业经济形势回顾及2025年展望与发展思考[J].中国乳业,2025,(2):2-9,8.基金项目
财政部和农业农村部资助国家现代农业产业技术体系(CARS-36)项目、中国社会科学院学科建设"登峰战略"农村经济学重点学科的研究成果 （CARS-36）
