中国农业大学学报2025，Vol.30Issue(3)：232-244,13.DOI:10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2025.03.21
东北三省黑土地碳排放时序特征及减排空间分析
Temporal characterization of carbon emissions and spatial analysis of emission reduction of black soil in Northeast China
摘要
Abstract
To measure the carbon emissions of black soil in the three northeastern provinces and predict the space for its reduction,six major carbon sources,fertilizers,pesticides,agricultural films,tillage,irrigation and agricultural diesel,were selected.Combined with the panel data of 2000-2021,the carbon emission coefficient method was applied to measure the carbon emission.The BP neural network model was used to predict the carbon emission from 2022-2030,and the baseline scenario and low carbon scenarios were set for quantitative analysis.The baseline scenario and low carbon scenario were set for quantitative analysis.The results show that:1)The total carbon emissions from 2000 to 2021 show a"fluctuating upward-declining"trend,of which the first stage is the fluctuating upward stage from 2000 to 2015,and the second stage is the declining stage from 2016 to 2021.2)The agricultural carbon emissions from 2022 to 2030 show a"first upward and thendeclining"trend.3)The agricultural carbon emissions from 2022 to 2030 display"first increased and then decreased"trend.The predicted carbon emission from black soil in 2030 is 16.05 million tons,and the predicted carbon emission under the low-carbon scenario is 6.9712 million tons.The largest reduction space is of 9.0788 million tons,the cumulative emission reduction in 10 years is 42.6741 million tons,and the cumulative carbon emission intensity potential space is 1.49 t/hm2.4)Among the six major carbon emission sources of black soil in Northeast China from 2000 to 2021,fertilizer is the main emission source,accounting for 73.78％of the total emission,and the carbon emission from tillage and irrigation,though small,has kept increasing.Overall,the carbon emissions from black soil in the three northeastern provinces have reached their peak,and there is still large reduction space in the future.The government should continue to reduce carbon emissions and accelerate the goal of carbon neutrality.关键词
东北黑土地/碳排放/碳减排/"双碳"目标/BP神经网络模型Key words
northeastern black soil/carbon emission/carbon reduction/double carbon target/BP neural network modeling分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
腾云,孙铭遥,孙雨薇,徐卉,黄润,闫甜磊,芦梓健..东北三省黑土地碳排放时序特征及减排空间分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2025,30(3):232-244,13.基金项目
黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目资助(23JYA045) （23JYA045）
