中国农业大学学报2025，Vol.30Issue(3)：286-298,13.DOI:10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2025.03.25
我国糖料蔗种植收入保险的定价机制研究
Research on the pricing mechanism of sugarcane planting income insurance in China
摘要
Abstract
To optimize the pricing mechanism of sugarcane planting income insurance in China,this study develops a pricing model based on the production and price data of sugarcane in China from 2002 to 2022(Data do not include those of Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan).The model adopts non-parametric kernel density estimation,Copula functions,and Monte Carlo simulation methods to estimate insurance premiums and evaluate risk management effectiveness at different risk coverage levels.The results indicate that:1)At the same risk coverage level,the inclusion of the harvest price option significantly improves the ability to manage price risk,effectively mitigates the impact of sugar price fluctuations on farmer income,and provides more flexible income protection.It has high promotional value;2)As the risk coverage level decreases,the impact of the price option diminishes,and the difference between with option and without option is gradually narrowing.Therefore,the harvest price option is more suitable for higher risk coverage levels.A moderate increase in coverage improves farmers'ability to cope with sugar price fluctuations,thereby enhancing the stability of their income;3)The empirical analysis based on data from Guangxi confirms the regional applicability of the pricing model for income insurance with harvest price option,providing empirical support for expanding the pilot program and further enhancing the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.Based on these findings,it is recommended to improve the sugarcane income loss data system,promote the use of harvest price options in sugarcane income insurance products,and establish a regionalized pricing mechanism for sugarcane income insurance.关键词
糖料蔗/收入保险/定价机制/收获期价格期权Key words
sugarcane/income insurance/pricing mechanism/harvest price option分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李荷雨,何琳,陶建平..我国糖料蔗种植收入保险的定价机制研究[J].中国农业大学学报,2025,30(3):286-298,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(71173086) （71173086）
广东省社科联决策咨询研究基地专项(ka22016b5) （ka22016b5）
