中国人口·资源与环境2024，Vol.34Issue(12)：55-63,9.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20240525
"双碳"背景下中国能源结构转型的碳减排潜力及宏观经济影响
Carbon emission reduction potential and macroeconomic impact analysis of China's energy structure transition in the context of'dual carbon'goals
摘要
Abstract
Exploring low-carbon energy structure transition scenarios is crucial for reconciling economic development and carbon emission reduction and achieving China's'dual carbon'goals.This paper sets forth four possible scenarios for future energy mix transi-tions and uses the GTAP-E-Power model to simulate the positive and negative impacts of these transitions.The study explores the im-pacts of different transition scenarios on carbon emission reduction potential,the average annual GDP growth rate,the outputs of key in-dustries,and import/export trade,among other factors.This paper focuses on the selection of energy structure adjustment scenarios,the various impacts of the four scenarios on China's carbon emission reduction and macroeconomics,and the proportion of stable versus non-stable energy structures and their treatment.The simulation results show that under the current government planning scenario(S1),China's carbon emissions will be reduced by 10.15%,and the average annual GDP growth rate will decrease by 0.39%.Under the BP World Energy Outlook new power scenario(S2),carbon emissions will be reduced by 9.06%,and the average annual GDP growth rate will decrease by 0.37%.Under the 2.0℃temperature control target scenario(S3),carbon emissions will be reduced by 14.17%,and the average annual GDP growth will decrease by 0.70%.Under the 1.5℃temperature control target scenario(S4),carbon emissions will be reduced by 16.71%,and the average annual GDP growth will decrease by 0.90%.Under the four simulated scenarios,the affected in-dustrial sectors are coal,crude oil,refined oil products,construction,other categories of the service industry,transport,agriculture,and chemicals.The sectors benefiting from these transitions include natural gas,hydropower,nuclear power,photovoltaic power generation,wind power,light industry,and electronic equipment manufacturing.This study proposes an energy structure adjustment plan to achieve the 2030 carbon'dual control'targets and another to achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality goal.Policy recommendations are put forward to address a series of issues that may arise from an increased proportion of unstable power generation,such as rationally adjust-ing the proportion of stable to unstable energy sources,increasing the construction of electric vehicle charging stations in expressway service areas;and strengthening the recycling of storage batteries.关键词
"双碳"/能源结构转型/经济增长/碳减排潜力Key words
'dual carbon'/energy structure transition/economic growth/carbon emission reduction potential分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
周曙东,雷会妨,葛继红,周力.."双碳"背景下中国能源结构转型的碳减排潜力及宏观经济影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2024,34(12):55-63,9.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"农产品安全、气候变暖与农业生产转型研究"(批准号:13&ZD160). （批准号:13&ZD160）
