北京水务Issue(1)：27-31,5.DOI:10.19671/j.1673-4637.2025.01.005
北京市雨水情监测预报"三道防线"体系建设与应用
Construction and application of the three lines of defense system for rainwater monitoring and forecasting in Beijing
王亦尘 1张欣 1高强 1杜龙刚 1金永亮 1苟璐峰 1薛栋元 1韩春苗1
作者信息
摘要
Abstract
Beijing,located in the Haihe River Basin,faces significant challenges in flood forecasting,particularly in mountainous areas and small-to-medium-sized gullies,which are prone to mountain floods,with a short forecast lead time.Following the"23·7"flood,a three-line defense system for rainwa-ter monitoring and forecasting was established.To evaluate its effectiveness,the rainfall event on"8·9"in 2024 was selected as a typical case,and the monitoring and forecasting accuracy was analyzed through comparison with observed data.The results indicated that the absolute error was approximately 30％in the hydrologic precipitation-monitoring radar rainfall monitoring and the 3-hour rainfall forecast.The in-tegration of the rainfall station network with the first line of defense supported the flash flood early warn-ings issuing for more than 12 hours in advance for Pinggu District and waterlogging warnings for Tong-zhou District.By incorporating real-time rainfall and flow data into the forecasting model,the flood fore-cast for the Beiyun River Basin was iteratively updated,reducing the average forecast error to 29％,and allowing the Beiguan Gate flood blue warning to be issued 8 hours in advance.These findings provide a basis for optimizing and improving three lines of defense system.关键词
北京市/雨水情监测预报/三道防线/预报预警Key words
Beijing/rainwater monitoring and forecasting/three lines of defense/forecast and early warning分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王亦尘,张欣,高强,杜龙刚,金永亮,苟璐峰,薛栋元,韩春苗..北京市雨水情监测预报"三道防线"体系建设与应用[J].北京水务,2025,(1):27-31,5.
