重庆理工大学学报2025，Vol.39Issue(4)：122-139,18.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8425(s).2025.02.009
数字经济与碳排放强度的链式多重中介研究
Research on the chain multiple mediation of digital economy and carbon emission intensity
摘要
Abstract
Amid the rapid development of the digital economy and the escalating global climate crisis,the"dual carbon"goals—carbon peak and carbon neutrality—have become a critical strategy for achieving China's high-quality development and advancing its modernization.As a pivotal tool for driving economic structural transformation and enhancing resource efficiency,the digital economy is increasingly recognized as a key driver for realizing these objectives.This study investigates the impact of the digital economy on carbon emission intensity and its underlying mechanisms,utilizing panel data from 30 Chinese provinces(autonomous regions,and municipalities)from 2013 to 2020.By constructing panel fixed-effects models,chain multiple mediation models,and threshold effect models,the research provides a comprehensive analysis of the digital economy's role in carbon reduction.The study makes several significant contributions.First,it integrates the digital economy,carbon emission intensity,industrial structure upgrading,and energy consumption structure into a unified framework,offering a systemic perspective on how the digital economy influences carbon emission intensity through multiple pathways.This approach not only broadens the scope of existing research on carbon emission intensity but also introduces fresh insights into the exploration of multidimensional mediation effects.Secondly,it constructs a robust theoretical chain—"digital economy—industrial structure upgrading—energy consumption structure—carbon emission intensity"—to systematically analyze the mechanisms through which the digital economy impacts carbon emissions.Furthermore,it delves into the heterogeneous effects of the digital economy on carbon emission intensity across different regions,thereby deepening the understanding of its regional carbon reduction potential.Thirdly,methodologically,the study innovatively combines chain mediation models with panel threshold effect models,effectively capturing the nonlinear relationship between the digital economy and carbon emission intensity.This approach mitigates the statistical biases associated with traditional methods,such as the use of quadratic terms,enhancing the explanatory power and accuracy of the model.The empirical findings reveal several key insights.First,the digital economy directly reduces carbon emission intensity,with industrial structure upgrading and energy consumption structure optimization serving as chain multiple mediators.This underscores the digital economy's role as a multifaceted tool for carbon reduction,providing empirical evidence and policy references for achieving sustainable development during China's economic transformation.Secondly,the mediating effects of industrial structure upgrading and energy consumption structure exhibit significant threshold effects.As the further development of digital economy,their indirect inhibitory effects on carbon emission intensity have become more pronounced,which highlights the importance of considering the stage of digital economic development in policy formulation so as to maximize its carbon reduction potential.Thirdly,the regional heterogeneity analysis indicates that the inhibitory effect of the digital economy on carbon emission intensity is more substantial in the eastern and central regions,while its impact in the western region remains limited.This suggests that the reliance on the digital economy for carbon reduction varies across regions,offering a theoretical basis for designing targeted and differentiated policies.Finally,the decomposition of mediation effects reveals that the digital economy indirectly reduces carbon emission intensity by promoting industrial structure upgrading and optimizing energy consumption structure.Thus,the digital economy not only drives industrial and energy structural improvements but also provides an effective pathway for achieving carbon reduction goals.Based on these findings,the study proposes the following policy recommendations.First,policymakers should leverage the strong externalities and high integration capabilities of the digital economy to promote the synergistic optimization of industrial and energy structures,thereby fostering a positive cycle for carbon reduction.Secondly,the coordinated implementation of industrial and energy policies is essential to ensure the effective alignment of the digital economy with carbon reduction objectives.Additionally,policymakers should consider the stage-specific characteristics of digital economic development and adopt flexible policy tools to support the innovation and application of green and low-carbon technologies.Finally,achieving sustainable economic development requires not only advancements in digital technology but also enhanced interregional cooperation and policy coordination to better realize the"dual carbon"goals.In conclusion,this study not only advances the theoretical understanding of the digital economy's role in carbon reduction but also provides actionable insights for policymakers,offering a valuable reference for aligning digital economic development with sustainable development goals.关键词
数字经济/碳排放强度/产业结构升级/能源消费结构/链式多重中介Key words
digital economy/carbon emission intensity/upgrading of industrial structure/energy consumption structure/chained multiple mediation分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
廖若凡,谭豪锴,陈安琪..数字经济与碳排放强度的链式多重中介研究[J].重庆理工大学学报,2025,39(4):122-139,18.基金项目
广西研究生教育创新计划项目"数字经济驱动、产业转移升级与碳排放'双控':机制、效应和实现路径研究"(YCSW2024282) （YCSW2024282）
