铁道科学与工程学报2025，Vol.22Issue(2)：900-908,9.DOI:10.19713/j.cnki.43-1423/u.T20240653
基于自愈特性的电容剩余寿命预测
Prediction of capacitor remaining useful life based on self-healing characteristics
摘要
Abstract
The lifespan of film capacitors is directly related to the safe operation of electric multiple units,and the self-healing phenomenon of the capacitor plays a critical role in determining their lifespan.Presently,most research on capacitor lifespan utilizes algorithms to predict degradation data,yet in-depth analysis of specific failure modes and their impact is relatively scarce.To elucidate the relationship between the self-healing phenomenon of film capacitors and their lifespan,this paper proposed a degradation analysis method based on self-healing performance evaluation,which can accurately describe the cumulative damage during the self-healing process.First,an analysis was carried out on the mechanisms through which self-healing causes capacitor damage,identifying two significant parameters from the self-healing process:self-healing energy and self-healing frequency.Following this,accelerated aging experiments were performed on the capacitors,and the self-healing energy and frequency were detected using the charge compensation method.Statistical analysis of self-healing energy characteristics was performed,and the counting process of capacitors was modeled using an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm in combination with the Holt exponential smoothing method.By using the predicted counting process and the distribution characteristics of self-healing,a non-homogeneous compound Poisson process was employed to calculate the degradation characteristics of the capacitor,resulting in the prediction of cumulative energy during aging and its 90%confidence interval.Furthermore,a failure threshold for the self-healing aging prediction scheme was established based on the relationship between capacitor capacitance damage and cumulative self-healing energy,allowing for the lifespan distribution of self-healing damage to be obtained.Finally,the degradation lifespan of the capacitors,based on both capacitance and self-healing characteristics,was compared.The results showed that under direct current voltage,the relative error between the capacitor lifespan determined through self-healing energy characteristics and that obtained through capacitance was approximately 2.55%.This finding validates the effectiveness and reliability of the degradation analysis and lifespan prediction method based on self-healing performance.关键词
非齐次复合poisson过程/金属化薄膜电容器/寿命预测/自愈/霍尔特指数平滑法Key words
non-homogeneous compound poisson process/metallized film capacitors/life prediction/self-healing/holt index method分类
交通运输引用本文复制引用
成庶,邹阳..基于自愈特性的电容剩余寿命预测[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2025,22(2):900-908,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52072414) （52072414）
