电测与仪表2025，Vol.62Issue(3)：138-146,9.DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2025.03.017
考虑高比例风电波动的多注意力TCN电价预测方法
A multi-attention TCN based electricity price forecasting method considering high proportion of wind power fluctuation
摘要
Abstract
In power system with a high proportion of wind power,the strong volatility of wind power causes drastic variations in the short-term balance of supply and demand,which increases the uncertainty of electricity prices and the difficulty of electricity price forecasting.This paper analyzes the cyclical characteristics of electricity prices,fo-cusing on the impact of wind power fluctuations on electricity prices.Using load and wind power,a new feature is constructed to characterize the impact of variations in electricity generation capacity of other high-cost power genera-tion methods on electricity prices.By combining attention mechanism with time convolutional network,a double-layer multi-head self-attention time convolutional network is established to explore the temporal patterns of electrici-ty prices and the impact of external factors on electricity prices.The forecasting effect is validated using actual data from the Nordic electricity market,and the results indicate that the proposed method reduces the MAE value by ap-proximately 45％compared to existing electricity price forecasting methods.关键词
电价预测/风电功率波动/发电成本/时间卷积网络/多头注意力机制Key words
electricity price forecasting/wind power fluctuation/power generation cost/time convolutional net-work/multi-attention mechanism分类
动力与电气工程引用本文复制引用
李子凯,杨波,周忠堂,李新,陈凤伟,焦润海..考虑高比例风电波动的多注意力TCN电价预测方法[J].电测与仪表,2025,62(3):138-146,9.基金项目
国网山东省电力公司科技项目(520607210007) （520607210007）
