电力建设2025，Vol.46Issue(3)：146-154,9.DOI:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2025.03.012
台风灾害不确定性场景下双层循环风光功率预测
Wind and Photovoltaic Generation Prediction Bi-level Model Based on Uncertainty Scenarios Under Typhoon Disaster
摘要
Abstract
In the context of global climate change intensification,large-scale and rapid development of new energy,meteorological conditions have become one of the key factors affecting power grid security and power supply.A wind and photovoltaic generation prediction bi-level model based on uncertainty scenarios under typhoon disaster model is proposed.First,the upper layer with Wasserstein generative adversarial network of uncertainty processing model is established.Through the combination of Wasserstein generative adversarial network model and improved K-means clustering,typical scenarios of uncertainties are established to realize the reasonable optimize of renewable energy uncertainty.Second,the lower layer with wind and photovoltaic generation prediction model based on typhoon disaster is established.It has used the Stacking and long short-term memory.Based on the loop iteration between the upper layer and the lower layer,the wind and photovoltaic generation prediction value with the highest accuracy are obtained.Finally,the 2022 super typhoon"Muifa"in Zhoushan port,Zhejiang,is taken as an example.The results verify that the optimization results have an impact on the prediction results and the advanced nature of the proposed model.关键词
台风灾害/风光功率预测/不确定性/双层模型/循环迭代Key words
typhoon disaster/wind and photovoltaic generation prediction/uncertainty/bi-level model/loop iteration分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
侯慧,万屹,王振国,姜凯华,王少华,李特,李正天,林湘宁..台风灾害不确定性场景下双层循环风光功率预测[J].电力建设,2025,46(3):146-154,9.基金项目
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U22B20106),the Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(No.5200-202319382A-2-3-XG),the Joint Fund of Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant(No.LZJMY25D050006)and State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.Science and Technology Project(No.B311DS24001A). 国家自然科学基金项目(U22B20106) （No.U22B20106）
国家电网公司科学技术项目(5200-202319382A-2-3-XG) （5200-202319382A-2-3-XG）
浙江省自然科学基金项目(LZJMY25D050006) （LZJMY25D050006）
国网浙江省电力有限公司科技项目(B311DS24001A) （B311DS24001A）
