电力需求侧管理2025，Vol.27Issue(2)：113-118,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2025.02.018
基于双对数模型的电力消费弹性系数均值计算方法研究
Research on the calculation method of the mean value of power consumption elasticity coefficient based on double logarithmic model
摘要
Abstract
The mean of power consumption elasticity coefficient is an important indicator that reflects the relationship between power con-sumption and economic development,and used for power demand forecasting.At present,the calculation of the mean in China mostly adopts the arithmetic mean method,which is more susceptible to extreme year data fluctuations,and cannot avoid significant errors.To ob-tain a more accurate mean,a time series fitting regression method based on the double logarithmic model is proposed.which selects"Gross Domestic Product"and"Electricity Consumption of the Whole Society"as samples to establish time series.and performs regression fitting analysis on them under the framework of linear relationships.By conducting tests on the regression model and comparing it with the geo-metric mean method example,it is statistically demonstrated that the mean error of the power consumption elasticity coefficient calculated based on the double logarithmic model is smaller and more reliable.关键词
电力消费弹性系数/双对数模型/均值/计算方法Key words
power consumption elasticity coefficient/double logarithmic model/mean/calculation method分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
黄云贵,兰珊..基于双对数模型的电力消费弹性系数均值计算方法研究[J].电力需求侧管理,2025,27(2):113-118,6.基金项目
中国南方电网有限责任公司软课题项目(2022A0210) （2022A0210）
