海洋科学2024，Vol.48Issue(12)：1-12,12.DOI:10.11759/hykx20230128002
适用于风暴潮淹没范围和深度快速估计的无源淹没方法改进
Improvement of the passive inundation method for rapid es-timation of storm surge inundation range and depth
摘要
Abstract
Storm surge is the most severe marine disaster in China,with the range and depth of inundation serving as key indicators of its severity.Rapid and accurate estimation of these parameters is crucial for effective risk as-sessment and emergency response.Currently,GIS technology is mainly used to estimate inundation range and depth via both passive and active inundation methods.The passive inundation method is suitable for large areas but is predominantly applied to heavy rain events.The active inundation method,while commonly used for storm surge inundation estimation,is slower in large-area assessments.An improved passive inundation method based on the active inundation method is proposed to quickly estimate the range and depth of storm surge inundation in large areas.The applicability and reliability of this improved method are verified by applying it to Typhoon"Lekima"of 1909,which had the most severe impact on Zhejiang Province in the past 10 years.The results show that the inun-dation range of the"Lekima"storm surge,estimated using the improved method,compared with the range extracted from Sentinel-1B images,yields a mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of 20%.Regarding the disaster losses caused by Typhoon"Lekima,"the MAPE for coastal engineering losses and aquaculture losses estimated using the improved method in this study is 21%and 3%,respectively,compared with the losses recorded in the Zhejiang Ma-rine Disaster Bulletin.These comparison results demonstrate that the improved passive inundation method is relia-ble for estimating the range and depth of storm surge inundation.Finally,the improved method is applied to esti-mate the inundation range and depth of 26 storm surges that affected Zhejiang Province from 2011 to 2021.The inundation results indicate that the northern and southern coastal areas of Zhejiang Province experience greater in-undation than the central areas,and the estuarine areas are more affected than the island areas,which aligns with the typical patterns of storm surge occurrences in the province.This method enables rapid estimation of the range and depth of storm surge inundation under various potential scenarios before future storm surge events,providing a valuable reference for decision-making in emergency response,prevention,and mitigation.The method also allows for the estimation of inundation range and depth for numerous historical storm surge events,enabling further analy-sis of the characteristics of storm surge disasters.关键词
风暴潮/淹没范围和深度快速估计/GIS技术/无源淹没/有源淹没Key words
storm surge/rapid estimation of inundation range and depth/GIS technology/passive inundation/active inundation分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
赵堂麒,李晓敏,张杰,张素铭,侯琪,杜雪雪..适用于风暴潮淹没范围和深度快速估计的无源淹没方法改进[J].海洋科学,2024,48(12):1-12,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3105102)National Key Research and Development Program,No.2022YFC3105102 （2022YFC3105102）
