电力系统保护与控制2025，Vol.53Issue(5)：69-81,13.DOI:10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.240354
基于改进随机响应面法的电-气-热区域综合能源系统概率能量流计算
Probabilistic energy flow calculation for regional integrated electricity-gas-heat energy systems based on an improved stochastic response surface method
摘要
Abstract
As the impact of the correlation and uncertainty of photovoltaic(PV)and wind power generation on electricity-gas-heat regional integrated energy systems(RIES)becomes more pronounced,analyzing the probabilistic energy flow of the electricity-gas-heat RIES can provide an intuitive reflection of its operational state changes.First,considering the correlation between PV and wind power generation and the uncertainty of random variables,an energy flow calculation model for an electricity-gas-heat RIES that includes PV and wind power is established.Then,an stochastic response surface method(SRSM)optimized by the Galerkin projection method is proposed to calculate the RIES energy flow,and the probability distributions of the state variables of the energy flow are obtained to quantitatively assess the impact of the correlation between PV and wind power on the probabilistic energy flow of the RIES.Finally,the proposed model and the solution method are validated using an RIES formed by the IEEE 30-node power system/IEEE 69-node power system,20-node heat system,and 24-node natural gas system.The validity and applicability of the proposed model and the accuracy and speed of the solution method are verified by analyzing the effects of the correlation between PV power and wind power on the probabilistic energy flow.关键词
区域综合能源系统/概率能量流/相关性/随机响应面法/Galerkin投影法Key words
regional integrated energy system/probabilistic energy flow/correlation/stochastic response surface method/Galerkin projection method引用本文复制引用
沈赋,张宇涛,王健,杨光兵,陈雪鸥,曹旸,翟苏巍..基于改进随机响应面法的电-气-热区域综合能源系统概率能量流计算[J].电力系统保护与控制,2025,53(5):69-81,13.基金项目
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52107097). 国家自然科学基金项目资助(52107097) （No.52107097）
云南省应用基础研究计划项目资助(202101BE070001-061,202201AU070111) （202101BE070001-061,202201AU070111）
昆明理工大学高层次人才平台建设项目资助(KKZ7202004004) （KKZ7202004004）
云南省兴滇英才支持计划项目资助(KKRD202204021) （KKRD202204021）
