计算机工程与应用2025，Vol.61Issue(6)：164-170,7.DOI:10.3778/j.issn.1002-8331.2405-0166
无人机活动概率和反制落点预判算法
Probability of Drone Activity and Countermeasure Landing Point Prediction Algorithm
摘要
Abstract
An algorithm is proposed to assess the probability of drone activity as well as to predict the landing point of drone after countermeasure,particularly aimed at addressing issues such as missed detections,high false alarm rates,and the need for early prediction of the landing point of"rogue"drone.Based on the Naive Bayes model,an algorithm is designed to calculate the probability of drone activity using big data on local weather and historical probabilities of drone appearances in the area.For drone falling in a projectile motion after being countered,an algorithm is developed to predict the landing point position and ground kinetic energy considering factors such as wind speed and air resistance.The com-plex low-altitude environmental factors that can affect the landing position,such as air temperature,humidity,and pres-sure,is considered as secondary factors.The Naive Bayes algorithm is used to calculate the probability of landing points deviation.A method combining the Naive Bayes algorithm with the Sigmoid function is proposed to determine the proba-bility that the landing points falls within a certain area.By comparing the results of theoretical simulation and field experi-ments,the credibility of the prediction algorithm for countermeasure landing points is verified.关键词
无人机/探测/活动概率/反制/预判Key words
drone/detection/activity probability/countermeasure/prediction分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
张宏展,陈鹏,陈勇..无人机活动概率和反制落点预判算法[J].计算机工程与应用,2025,61(6):164-170,7.基金项目
北京市重点研发项目(E1JS03C001) （E1JS03C001）
致公党福建省委调研课题(ZGD202401). （ZGD202401）
