矿业科学学报2025，Vol.10Issue(1)：86-94,9.DOI:10.19606/j.cnki.jmst.2024931
山东矿区矿井导水裂隙带发育高度预测模型研究
Predictive modeling of the development height of water-conducting fracture zones in mines in Shandong mining area
摘要
Abstract
Predicting the development height of the hydraulic fracture zone is vital to safe coal mining.This study first analyzed the development patterns of hydraulic fracture zones under similar mining con-ditions.Taking 36 sets of data measuring the development height of hydraulic fracture zones under simi-lar geological conditions in Shandong mining area as example for analysis,we selected coal seam thick-ness,mining depth,sloping length of working face,and hard rock lithology ratio coefficient as the main control factors for the prediction model.We analyzed their correlation with the development height of hydraulic fracture zones,and established a multifactorial prediction model with highly-correlated fac-tors via regression analysis and deep learning calculation.Compare and analyze the specification value of the prediction model with the measured data and the"triple down"specification data.Results show that compared with the measured value of hydraulic fracture zones,only 6%and 17%of the"triple down"specification data exhibit less than 5m of absolute value of the prediction error,while those in the 2 prediction models via regression analysis and deep learning are 83%and 89%respectively.The two prediction models show high curve fit,and their stability and accuracy outperform that of the"tri-ple down"model.关键词
导水裂隙带发育高度/山东矿区/回归分析/神经网络/预测模型Key words
development height of hydraulic fracture zone/Shandong mining area/regression analy-sis/neural networks/prediction model分类
矿业与冶金引用本文复制引用
徐东晶,窦旋,李业,夏志村..山东矿区矿井导水裂隙带发育高度预测模型研究[J].矿业科学学报,2025,10(1):86-94,9.基金项目
山东省自然科学基金(ZR2022MD101) （ZR2022MD101）
