绿洲农业科学与工程2025，Vol.10Issue(1)：13-20,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2096-2177.2025.01.003
基于VAR的新疆玉米种植面积和产量预测
Prediction of Corn Planting Area and Yield in Xinjiang Based on VAR
摘要
Abstract
With the increasing impact of global climate change and population growth on food security,accurate forecasting of crop planting area and yield has become particularly important.This paper applies the Vector Autoregressio(VAR)model to predict and analyze the planting area and yield of corn in Xinjiang.By collecting historical data and constructing the VAR model,along with a series of tests and analyses,the final forecast model is obtained.The model predicts that by 2024,the corn planting area will be14 728.61 km2,and the yield will be 1 357.76 million tons.Based on the forecast results,policy recommendations are given for the government to optimize the agricultural planting structure,strengthen the protection of agricultural resources,and enhance agricultural risk management.Farmers are advised to increase the planting area of corn.These recommendations aim to provide a scientific basis for the industrial planning and decision-making of corn in Xinjiang.关键词
新疆玉米/种植面积/产量/VAR模型Key words
Xinjiang corn/planting area/production/VAR model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
齐丹丹,李欣茹..基于VAR的新疆玉米种植面积和产量预测[J].绿洲农业科学与工程,2025,10(1):13-20,8.基金项目
黑龙江省博士后科研启动项目(LBH-20106) （LBH-20106）
黑龙江省社科基金一般项目(23JYA041) Postdoctoral Research Project of Heilongjiang Province(LBH-20106) （23JYA041）
General Project of Social Science Fund of Heilongjiang Province(23JYA041) （23JYA041）
