大气科学学报2025，Vol.48Issue(1)：26-36,11.DOI:10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20240911002
中国高温、干旱及其复合事件的研究进展和展望
Research progress and prospect on the drought,heatwave,and compound drought and heatwave events in China
摘要
Abstract
Drought,as one of the leading and most severe meteorological disasters globally,occurs frequently in China.Between 2001 and 2020,approximately 48％of the crop area affected by meteorological disasters in China were due to drought(Li et al.,2021).Heatwaves are believed to be increasing under global warming,while droughts exhibit more regionalized patterns.The simultaneous occurrence of drought and heatwave has become more frequent,mainly due to increase in high temperature events driven by global warming.High temperature and soil moisture deficit can reinforce each other,likely leading to more frequent,longer-lasting,and stronger extreme events,known as compound drought and heatwave events(CDHEs).CDHEs have more severe and persistent im-pact on agriculture and ecological environment through the positive feedback between drought and high tempera-ture.This work provides a brief review of research progress on drought,heatwave,and CDHE events in China.First,the various definitions of drought,heatwave,and CDHE are summarized.The influencing factors,including sea surface temperature(SST)and sea ice,land surface conditions,atmospheric circulation patterns,and the un-derlying physical processes,are then reviewed. Northeast China(NEC)is a typical region where drought,heatwave,and CDHE events often occur.Previous studies have identified several factors that influence these events in NEC.As an example,we integrate the effects of sea-land-ice-air system on NEC drought,heatwave,and CDHE events based on prior research,constructing a simplified physical framework.The key mechanisms can be briefly depicted as follows: Local anomalous anticyclone plays a central role in drought,heatwave,and CDHE events.These local circu-lation anomalies can be induced by Rossby wave train in the upper atmosphere,which are influenced by climate variations in the upstream,including the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO),North Atlantic SST,polar sea ice,and soil temperature in Central Asia.Additionally,phenomena like El Nino and Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)can significantly affect the drought,heatwave,CDHE events in NEC. Despite the identification of several local,regional,remote natural climate systems contributing to drought,heatwave,CDHE events in China,a comprehensive understanding of the synergistic physical and dynamical mechanisms behind these events remains lacking.These processes are complicated by the interplay between re-gional SST,sea ice,land surface conditions,and atmospheric dynamics.In addition to natural climate systems,an-thropogenic activity are proposed to significantly drive the increasing frequency and intensity of drought,heat-wave,CDHE events in China.However,the relative contribution of natural climate variation and anthropogenic forcing remain unclear and require further investigation. Although the impact of drought,heatwave,CDHE events is growing rapidly,predictive skills remain limited.Numerical weather forecast based on state-of-the-art models have a skill horizon of only about one week.These limitations arise from our incomplete understanding of the underlying physical processes and the imperfect repre-sentation of the real world by current numerical models.The first step in improving prediction skills is to systemat-ically enhance our understanding of the physical processes driving extreme climate events.Developing effective dynamical-statistical methods,including deep-learning techniques,is essential for improving the predictability of drought,heatwave,CDHE events over various timescales,addressing the urgent need to prevent disasters and re-duce damages under global warming.关键词
热浪/干旱/极端事件/复合高温干旱事件/复合事件Key words
heatwave/drought/extreme event/compound drought and heatwave event(CDHE)/compound event引用本文复制引用
祝亚丽,刘洋,孔祥慧,王晓欣,张梦琪,洪晓玮,陈活泼,孙建奇..中国高温、干旱及其复合事件的研究进展和展望[J].大气科学学报,2025,48(1):26-36,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF0801303) （2022YFF0801303）
国家自然科学基金项目(41991281) （41991281）
中国科学院大气物理研究所基本科研业务费项目(E3680218) （E3680218）
