人民黄河2025，Vol.47Issue(3)：10-17,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.03.002
基于LMDI的黄河流域能源富集区经济增长与碳排放脱钩研究
Research on Economic Growth and the Decoupling of Carbon Emissions in Energy-Rich Areas of the Yellow River Basin Based on LMDI Analysis
摘要
Abstract
Utilizing panel data from 2010 to 2020 pertaining to energy consumption and socio-economic dynamics within the energy-abundant region of the Yellow River basin,this research employed the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)model in conjunction with the Tapio decoupling index to examine the decoupling relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions.Additionally,the study assessed the respective contributions of energy structure,energy consumption intensity,economic output,and population size to the variability in carbon emissions and the decoupling index.The findings indicate that:Over the course of the decade,carbon emissions in the energy-rich regions of the Yellow River Basin have experienced a marked upswing,with a fluctuating growth rate that has decreased by 8.83%compared to the ini-tial period.Over the long term,the escalation of economic output levels emerges as the predominant factor contributing to the augmentation of regional carbon emissions.The predominance of coal in the energy mix constitutes the primary driver behind substantial carbon emission lev-els,although its impact on the incremental increase in carbon emissions is moderated by the entrenched nature of the energy structure,which is resistant to short-term transformation.The energy intensity effect reflects the combined impact of energy efficiency and energy consumption demand,and it is a significant factor in promoting carbon emission increases.Conversely,a contraction in population size exerts a mild inhib-itory on the escalation of carbon emissions.The study region undergoes a triphasic transformation in its decoupling status,evolving from an undesirable condition predominantly marked by negative decoupling to a more desirable state predominantly characterized by positive decou-pling,culminating in a regression to a less favorable condition of negative decoupling by the terminal period.Ascending energy intensity and economic output emerge as the predominant impediments to the realization of decoupling between regional carbon emissions.Of particular in-terest is the contrasting influence of population size reduction on carbon emissions and decoupling status,which demands further scholarly consideration.Population size is a critical determinant of a region's ability to achieve decoupling.In light of these findings,the study put for-ward several recommendations,including optimizing the energy structure,enhancing energy efficiency,fostering technological innovation,promoting sustainable industries,attracting talent,consolidating the population base,undertaking mining area rehabilitation efforts,and strengthening environmental regulations.关键词
能源富集区/碳排放/高质量发展/LMDI/Tapio脱钩指数/黄河流域Key words
energy rich areas/carbon emissions/high quality development/LMDI/Tapio decoupling index/Yellow River Basin分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
孙文悦,余文学,吴保林..基于LMDI的黄河流域能源富集区经济增长与碳排放脱钩研究[J].人民黄河,2025,47(3):10-17,8.基金项目
国家社会科学基金资助项目(19BSH152) （19BSH152）
