人民黄河2025，Vol.47Issue(3)：30-36,41,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.03.005
变化环境下山西省典型流域径流演变及归因分析
Runoff Evolution and Attribution of Typical Watersheds in Shanxi Province Under Changing Environment
摘要
Abstract
Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the runoff of most rivers in Shanxi Province has been severely attenu-ated.Four typical watersheds in Shanxi province,including Fenhe,Qinhe,Zhanghe and Hutuo rivers,were taken as the research objects.The runoff evolution characteristics were analyzed.The hydrological processes were simulated by using the VIC model,based on which the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff attenuation were analyzed.The results show that the annual runoff of typical wa-tersheds shows a significant downward trend during 1956-2018,and all of which has an abrupt change around 1980.Compared with the base-line period(1960-1980),the average annual runoff(1981-2000)of Fenhe,Qinhe,Zhanghe and Hutuo rivers is decreased by 57.9%,49.1%,57.3%and 37.6%,and the contributions of human activities are 59.9%,54.3%,52.3%and 49.0%respectively.During 2001-2018,the attenuation is increased further,and the contribution of human activities increases to 74.8%,73.1%,72.4%and 57.7%respec-tively.Human activities such as surface and underground water extraction,coal mining,soil and water conservation measures and so on are the main driving factors of runoff attenuation.关键词
气候变化/人类活动/径流衰减/VIC模型/归因分析/典型流域/山西省Key words
climate change/human activities/runoff attenuation/VIC model/attribution analysis/typical watershed/Shanxi Province分类
地球科学引用本文复制引用
蔺彬彬,祝雪萍,张亚琼,庞小龙,郭维维..变化环境下山西省典型流域径流演变及归因分析[J].人民黄河,2025,47(3):30-36,41,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52379018) （52379018）
山西省应用基础研究计划项目(20210302123120) （20210302123120）
山西省科技创新人才团队专项(202204051002027) （202204051002027）
