水力发电学报2025，Vol.44Issue(3)：62-75,14.DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20250306
京津冀地区水-能-粮-碳纽带关系及安全探究
Exploring water-energy-food-carbon nexus and security in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
摘要
Abstract
To achieve the coordinated development of a water-energy-food system covering the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under carbon neutrality,this paper constructs a three-dimensional water-energy-food-carbon security assessing model that considers reliability within individual systems,coordination between dual systems,and sustainability among multiple systems.We adopt an improved criteria importance through intercriteria correlation(CRITIC)method to assess the security level of this system in the 2000-2022 period,and examine the changes in system security caused by implementing certain carbon emission indicators.Its primary obstacle factors are identified for this region.The results indicate a rising trend in the coupling system's security level in this period,with its average value rising from 0.354 to 0.535,while it decreased to 0.508 in 2022 thanks to the carbon neutrality policy.Since carbon neutrality implementation started in 2020,system security has been improved to a certain degree.Primary obstacle factors that affect the system's security in this region are energy production elasticity coefficient,SO2 emission in exhaust gases,food yield fluctuation index,difference between food exports and imports,number of civilian vehicles,and proportion of hydroelectricity generation.关键词
水-能-粮-碳/碳中和/系统安全/京津冀地区/改进CRITIC法/障碍因子Key words
water-energy-food-carbon/carbon neutrality/system security/Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region/improved CRITIC method/obstacle factors分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
刘楠,门宝辉,丽娜·托库,文滢,王红瑞..京津冀地区水-能-粮-碳纽带关系及安全探究[J].水力发电学报,2025,44(3):62-75,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(52279005) （52279005）
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2019YFC0408902) （2019YFC0408902）
