水利学报2025，Vol.56Issue(2)：216-226,239,12.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240083
基于STL时序分解的天然径流演变规律与影响因素分析
Analyses of the evolution and influencing factors of natural runoff in China based on STL decomposition
摘要
Abstract
As a key indicator of water resources,river runoff exhibits considerable spatio-temporal variability in its long-term changes.Previous research has primarily focused on measured runoff without excluding the impacts of short-term factors.This article applied a method that combines time series decomposition with traditional trend analysis,based on natural hydrological processes undisturbed by human activities,to discern the dynamics of natural river runoff and explore its influencing mechanisms.Utilizing a gridded natural runoff and regional meteoro-logical driving datasets,this study examined the spatial distribution and trends of natural runoff across 218 tertiary basins in China from 1979 to 2018.The analysis employed the Seasonal-Trend decomposition procedure based on Loess(STL)for decomposing natural runoff series.Additionally,multiple linear regression was employed to i-dentify the primary meteorological factors affecting natural runoff.The findings revealed that,prior to STL decom-position,only 35.8％of the 218 tertiary basins exhibited a significant trend in natural runoff.Post-STL decompo-sition,however,the changing trend became more obvious,with 75.7％of the basins showing a significant tend-ency.Following the STL decomposition,84.4％of the tertiary basins demonstrated an increasing trend in natural runoff,with high statistical significance.Precipitation emerged as the most important factor influencing natural runoff variations in most basins,followed by long-wave radiation and specific humidity.The influencing factors varied in complexity between northern and southern China,with the northern basins exhibiting more intricate in-fluencing factors.This study provides reference for comprehensively understanding the characteristics of runoff patterns in China under changing environments.关键词
天然径流/三级流域/STL分解/径流趋势/影响因素Key words
natural runoff/tertiary basin/STL decomposition/runoff trend/influencing factors分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
赵轶琳,刘文丰,李政,徐宗学,阳坤,吴德丰..基于STL时序分解的天然径流演变规律与影响因素分析[J].水利学报,2025,56(2):216-226,239,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(32361143871,52239002) （32361143871,52239002）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项项目(2024RC033) （2024RC033）
