沈阳农业大学学报（社会科学版）2024，Vol.26Issue(6)：680-686,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1008-9713.2024.06.005
农业上市企业财务风险预警模型测试研究
Research on the Testing of Financial Risk Early Warning Model of Agricultural Listed Companies
摘要
Abstract
Agricultural listed companies are key drivers in developing new quality productive forces in agriculture.To ensure their sustainable and healthy growth,establishing an accurate financial risk early warning mechanism is essential for effective risk monitoring and control.This study analyzes 37 agricultural companies listed on the A-share market from 2013 to 2022,employing a BP neural network to construct a financial risk early warning model,which achieved a comprehensive accuracy of 80.16％,indicating strong predictive performance.Indicator analysis revealed that the net interest rate on total assets,a key profitability risk factor,is the primary driver of financial risk in these companies.The model was further applied to assess the financial risk of Company D.Based on these findings,the study recommends strengthening fund management and improving asset utilization efficiency,enhancing debt structure management while optimizing capital structure,adjusting equity structure while maintaining balanced equity concentration,improving inventory management to reduce stockpiling,increasing operational efficiency to minimize business risks,and promoting technological innovation to enhance market competitiveness.关键词
农业上市企业/财务风险/BP神经网络模型/总资产净利率/风险预警Key words
agricultural listed companies/financial risk/BP neural network model/net profit margin on total assets/risk early warning分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王美,宁雪,宋霞,牟海静..农业上市企业财务风险预警模型测试研究[J].沈阳农业大学学报（社会科学版）,2024,26(6):680-686,7.基金项目
山东农业大学教学改革研究项目(XM202254) （XM202254）
山东农业大学课程思政教学改革研究项目(S2023025) （S2023025）
