天津师范大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.45Issue(1)：60-68,9.DOI:10.19638/j.issn1671-1114.20250109
达古冰山地质公园生态地质环境承载力的评价和预测
Evaluation and prediction of eco-geological environment carrying capacity of Dagu Iceberg Geopark
摘要
Abstract
In order to better protect and utilize the geological relics of Dagu Iceberg and realize the sustainable development of Dagu Iceberg Geopark,the eco-geological environment carrying capacity of Dagu Iceberg Geopark from 2011 to 2019 was evaluated using the analytic hierarchy process,and its eco-geological environment carrying capacity from 2020 to 2030 was predicted through the grey prediction model.The results show that from 2011 to 2019,the change of eco-geological environ-mental carrying capacity of the studied area generally presents a W-shaped change characteristic of first rapid decline,then rapid increase,then rapid decline,and finally slight increase.The overall spatial distribution shows a distribution pattern of good in the southeast and poor in the southwest.During the forecast period of 2020-2030,the eco-geological environmental carrying capacity of the studied area will deteriorate from"two good and one bad"(good in the north and southeast,bad in the southwest)in 2020 to"one good and three bad"(good in the north,bad in the southeast,southwest and bad in the road)in 2030.In order to improve the eco-geological environment carrying capacity of Dagu Iceberg Park,it is suggested to take mea-sures such as increasing vegetation coverage,adjusting tourist trails,regulating tourist flow and setting rainwater diversion channels to achieve coordination between tourism development and ecological environment protection in the areas with severe deterioration of eco-geological environment carrying capacity.关键词
达古冰山/地质遗迹/生态地质环境承载力/层次分析法/灰色预测模型Key words
Dagu Iceberg/geological heritage/eco-geological environment carrying capacity/analytic hierarchy process/grey prediction model分类
地理科学引用本文复制引用
王成武,王云飞,文定清,汪宙峰,靳鑫,黄仕海..达古冰山地质公园生态地质环境承载力的评价和预测[J].天津师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,45(1):60-68,9.基金项目
四川省科技计划资助项目(2023YFS0406). （2023YFS0406）
