西北林学院学报2025，Vol.40Issue(2)：259-272,14.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2025.02.26
武夷山国家公园网络关注度多维时间特征与预测
Multidimensional Temporal Characterization and Prediction of Internet Attention in Wuyi Mountain National Park
摘要
Abstract
The network attention to national parks is an important indicator for assessing the development status of tourist destinations,perceiving the behavioral preferences of tourist activities,and predicting the demand of potential tourist flows.However,there are fewer studies on exploring the periodic and sudden change characteristics of the network attention from a long time dynamic time perspective.Based on the Baidu index data of the Wuyi Mountain National Park from 2014 to 2023,this study explored the multidi-mensional time change characteristics of the network attention by using various methods,such as seasonal intensity index,M-K change test,wavelet analysis,etc.,and predicted the future trend values of the net-work attention to the Wuyi Mountain National Park by using the SARIMA-SVM combination model.The study showed that:1)The annual change of the network attention to the park presented a single peak trend,and the monthly change exhibited a bimodal seasonality,with peaks in April and July,and a trough in December.2)The change points of the network attention to the park concentrated in the period of Spring Festival and at the end of a year with the overall long-term upward trend.The weekly network at-tention in four seasons presented a significantly periodic change.3)The temporal characteristics of network attention were related to the holiday system,festival activities,and the number of tourists.4)The SARI-MA-SVM combination model had good applicability in the prediction of the network attention to the park,with the best fitting effect in the time period of a sudden and substantial increase or decrease in attention,and the accuracy was about 94.92％.This study aims to clarify the time-series characteristics of national park network attention and make future predictions to provide a scientific basis for coping with the real tourist impact of national parks.关键词
网络关注度/百度指数/国家公园/时间特征/未来预测Key words
network attention/Baidu index/national park/temporal characterization/future prediction分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张丽甜,崔亭亭,庄迎鑫,朱里莹..武夷山国家公园网络关注度多维时间特征与预测[J].西北林学院学报,2025,40(2):259-272,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(32401461) （32401461）
福建省891号科技专项(115-KLY23110XA) （115-KLY23110XA）
福建农林大学专项(XJQ2021S2). （XJQ2021S2）
