西北水电Issue(1)：35-43,57,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-2610.2025.01.005
黄河下游滩区村庄搬迁安置适宜性评价及情景模拟
Suitability Evaluation and Scenario Simulation of Village Relocation and Resettlement in the Floodplain Area of the Lower Reaches of the Yellow River
摘要
Abstract
In order to scientifically relocate and resettle the villages in the floodplain area of the lower reaches of the Yellow River,and to solve problems such as the occupation of the river channel for flood discharge and the potential threats of floods,this study takes the flood-plain area of the lower reaches of the Yellow River as the research area.Based on the Logistic-CA-Markov model,using the data of land use,socio-economic conditions,and basic geographic information in 2022,a spatial distribution map of the suitability for village reloca-tion and resettlement is calculated.Three different scenarios are designed to simulate the village relocation and resettlement within the floodplain area,and a feasibility analysis is carried out from aspects such as the village relocation and resettlement policies,target groups,and environmental capacity.The results show that the areas suitable for village relocation and resettlement are divided into suit-able areas,areas with relatively strong suitability,and very suitable areas,with a total area of 47,800 hectares,accounting for 18.76%of the total area of the research area.The villages in the five townships with the largest inundated area within the floodplain area are selected as the relocation objects,and they are resettled within the same township,across townships,nearby,or in a centralized man-ner.The cultivated land and forest land in the relocated village areas are reclaimed.The villages in the five townships with the lowest per capita GDP are selected as the relocation objects,and these villages are mainly resettled in a centralized manner in county towns,market towns,along trunk highways,and in industrial parks.The villages in the five townships with the lowest cultivated land area are selected as the relocation objects,and the villages are relocated and resettled in the same township,across townships,or nearby,with the least occupation of cultivated land,and the cultivated land in the relocated areas is reclaimed.The research results can provide a scientific basis for the decision-making of village relocation and resettlement.关键词
黄河下游滩区/土地利用格局/情景模拟/防洪安全/发展优先/耕地保护Key words
Floodplain Area of the Lower Reaches of the Yellow River/Land Use Pattern/Scenario Simulation/Flood Control Safety/De-velopment Priority/Cultivated Land Protection分类
地理科学引用本文复制引用
裴春营,吴锋,郭昭,庞晓峰,郑斌,孙仲秋..黄河下游滩区村庄搬迁安置适宜性评价及情景模拟[J].西北水电,2025,(1):35-43,57,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(51809103) （51809103）
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项典型滩区土地利用变化模拟与预测项目(HKY-JBYW-2016-08,HKY-JBYW-2018-06,HKY-JBYW-2017-01) （HKY-JBYW-2016-08,HKY-JBYW-2018-06,HKY-JBYW-2017-01）
