中国城市林业2025，Vol.23Issue(1)：11-17,7.DOI:10.12169/zgcsly.2025.02.12.0001
气候变化和人类活动对南京主城区植被覆盖变化的影响
Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Cover Changes in Core Area of Nanjing City
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study is to discuss the impact of climate change and human activities on vegetation cover in the core area of Nanjing City during the rapid urbanization process in the past 20 years,and determine their respective contribution rates,which would provide references for the science-based planning and management of urban vegetation.[Method]A linear regression model between climatic factors and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)is constructed to quantify the impact of climate change on NDVI in the past 20 years(2000-2020)in the core area of Nanjing.The impact of human activities is calculated by residual analysis.The respective contribution rates are calculated by the trend analysis,and the main influencing factors are determined by the correlation analysis.[Result]The vegetation cover change in the core area of Nanjing is jointly affected by climate change and human activities,but the average contribution rate of human activities(65.4%)is higher than that of climate change(34.6%).Human activities have positive effects,and the green coverage rate of built-up areas and per capita public green space area are the main positive driving factors,while urban population and urban GDP are the main negative driving factors.Climate change has a negative effect.Temperature is more correlated with vegetation than precipitation,and extreme climate events have a significant negative role.[Conclusion]Climate change and human activities impact the vegetation cover in the core area of Nanjing,while human activities have a higher effect and contribution than climate change.Hence,the negative effect of climate change on urban vegetation cannot be ignored.The formulation of urban green space management measures for human activities such as urban renewal and vegetation restoration should focus on improving greening indicators such as green coverage rate in built-up areas and per capita public green space area.关键词
城市扩张/城市更新/城市绿地/NDVIKey words
urban expansion/urban renewal/urban green space/NDVI引用本文复制引用
刘鸣,李志朋,李艳..气候变化和人类活动对南京主城区植被覆盖变化的影响[J].中国城市林业,2025,23(1):11-17,7.基金项目
高密度人居环境生态与节能教育部重点实验室开放课题(20220111) （20220111）
南京市绿化园林局专项资金(JSCXFW2022-06-1) （JSCXFW2022-06-1）
