中国农业资源与区划2025，Vol.46Issue(1)：1-12,12.DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20250101
中国粮食体系韧性测度、时空分异及推进路径
MEASUREMENT,SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DIVERSITY,AND PROMOTION PATH OF RESILIENCE IN CHINA'S GRAIN SYSTEM
摘要
Abstract
To calculate the resilience level of China's grain system and characterize its spatial and temporal evolution,and provide decision-making suggestions for coordinating the resilience development of the national grain system.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(cities,autonomous regions excluding Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan)in China from 2012 to 2021,this study comprehensively used the entropy method,the Theil index,ArcGIS,Moran's index,and other methods to conduct an in-depth analysis of the overall level,regional differences,temporal evolution,and spatial correlation of the resilience of China's grain system.The results were listed as follows.(1)Overall,the resilience level of China's grain system had steadily increased,and the ability of the grain system in most provinces to resist risks had been improved.(2)From the perspective of regional differences,the resilience of the grain system in the three major grain functional zones was dominated by the main production areas>the production and sales balance areas>the main sales areas,and the internal differences in the production and sales balance areas were intensifying.The resilience of the grain system in the four major economic regions was central>northeastern>eastern>western,and the differences among the four regions mainly come from within the regions,with the eastern region having the largest differences and contributions.(3)From the perspective of temporal and spatial evolution,the resilience of the grain system in other provinces except Shaanxi was generally"improving".(4)From the perspective of spatial correlation,there was a significant spatial agglomeration effect in the resilient development of China's grain system.And in the research time,there were few H—L agglomeration provinces,while the H—H,L—H and L—L agglomeration provinces were relatively evenly distributed.In summary,overall,the spatial agglomeration characteristics of resilience in China's grain system are evident.It is necessary to promote major grain-producing areas to play a greater role in stabilizing food security,ensure the basic self-sufficiency of grain in the balanced production and marketing area,promote the coordinated development of urbanization and grain production in economically developed regions in the east,and enhance the grain production capacity base in the western region,in order to narrow the gap in resilience between regions and effectively enhance China's food security guarantee capability.关键词
粮食体系韧性/区域差异/时空演变/空间分布/推进路径Key words
food system resilience/regional differences/temporal and spatial evolution/spatial distribution/pro-motion approach分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
郑骏川,周世昕,李璨..中国粮食体系韧性测度、时空分异及推进路径[J].中国农业资源与区划,2025,46(1):1-12,12.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"中国对外直接投资韧性的测度与提升路径研究"(22XJL002) （22XJL002）
重庆市社会科学规划一般项目"数字经济赋能粮食安全韧性的效应测度及提升策略研究"(2023NDYB52) （2023NDYB52）
重庆市统计科学研究项目"重庆市粮食安全评价与保障研究"(2022KY15) （2022KY15）
