中国农业资源与区划2025，Vol.46Issue(1)：47-61,15.DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20250105
林业碳汇抵消政策分担减排压力的效应研究
EFFECT OF FORESTRY CARBON OFFSET POLICY ON SHARING THE PRESSURE OF EMISSION REDUCTION
摘要
Abstract
The forestry carbon sink is a crucial negative emission technology that plays an essential role in achieving carbon neutrality.However,the forestry carbon offset policy has been implemented for a short period,and thus,it is urgent to evaluate its mechanism and effect in sharing the pressure of emission reduction.This research analyzed the offset mechanism of forestry carbon sink emission reduction based on the SCP framework.Then based on the panel data of 30 provinces(cities,autonomous regions)in China from 2000 to 2020,it measured the marginal abatement cost of each provinces(cities,autonomous regions)by using the directional distance function,and then took the application of the forestry carbon sink offset policy in Beijing,Guangdong,and Fujian as a natural experiment by adopting a synthetic control method,and verified the validity of the results by using the placebo tests and the differences-in-differences tests.The study showed that:(1)The forestry carbon offset policy was a Pareto improvement after integrating multiple benefits,but it could effectively share the pressure of emission reduction only when the marginal loss of total utility of purchasing forestry carbon sinks by emission control enterprises was lower than the marginal cost of adopting other emission reduction methods;moreover,stricter carbon emission reduction policies would increase enterprises'demand for forestry carbon sinks.(2)The impact of forestry carbon offset policy on sharing abatement pressure had regional heterogeneity,which was affected mainly by geographical location,economic level,and industrial structure.It could be obtained that the forestry carbon offset policy had shared the pressure for emission reductions in Guangdong and Fujian,but the pressure on Beijing to reduce emissions was still on the rise.Based on these,this paper proposes that the implementation of the forestry carbon offset policy should be differentiated in consideration of the regional characteristics to ensure the supply and enhance the demand for forestry carbon sinks.Regions with abundant forest resources should adopt cross-regional trading with regions with scarce forest resources to generate spillover effects and avoid idle resources caused by insufficient demand.Economically advanced regions should consider increasing the proportion of forestry carbon sink offsets to alleviate the imperative to reduce emissions.Moreover,resource allocation should motivate market power to achieve a simultaneous balance between supply and demand.关键词
林业碳汇抵消政策/边际减排成本/效应分析/合成控制法/方向距离函数Key words
forestry carbon offset policy/marginal abatement cost/effect analysis/synthetic control method/di-rectional distance function分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
孙睿,何大义,闫晶晶..林业碳汇抵消政策分担减排压力的效应研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2025,46(1):47-61,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"环境规制激励企业技术创新的微观机理、效应与政策优化研究"(42277484) （42277484）
国家自然科学基金面上项目"京津冀生物质能与环境改善和经济发展的耦合机理及优化模拟研究"(41971258) （41971258）
