中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(1)：17-26,10.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20240742
《巴黎协定》下第一次全球盘点的进程与成果解析
Analysis of the process and outcomes of the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement
摘要
Abstract
The global stocktake is an important component of the global climate governance mechanism.The first global stocktake un-der the Paris Agreement,conducted in 2023,clarified the collective progress of the international community in addressing climate change and pointed out pathways to bridge existing gaps.However,it has not yet been systematically and comprehensively understood by all stakeholders.In view of this,this study adopts textual analysis,historical review,timeline analysis,and game theory methods to analyze the process and outcomes of the first global stocktake in depth.The study finds that:① The first global stocktake went through three stages:scientific enhancement,technical dialogue,and political consensus.Spanning over five years,it reached the final outcome of the UAE Consensus,in which the 1.5℃temperature control target,anchored in the scientific enhancement stage,set the general tone for the stocktake.② The first global stocktake focuses on three specific areas,namely,mitigation,adaptation,and means of imple-mentation and support,aiming to fully release its signaling effect.③ The most prominent outcome of the stocktake is the newly estab-lished consensus on'transitioning away from all fossil fuels in energy systems,'which points out the direction for countries to update their nationally determined contributions in 2025 and for the international community to conduct the second global stocktake in 2028.④ In the global stocktaking game,developed countries,emerging economies,hydrocarbon-exporting-oriented economies,and climate-vulnerable countries—these four typical interest groups have different interests and hold distinct core positions.They constrain each other and yet advance the stocktake process as a whole.⑤ The outcomes of the stocktake are comprehensive and systematic,encom-passing as many as 196 consensus items.However,the detailed targets for the three major focus areas remain unclear and lack rigidity,necessitating further strengthening in the second global stocktake.The findings of the first global stocktake indicate that the global goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 is irreversible.The study suggests that,on the one hand,China should strengthen its policy re-search in light of the outcomes of the first global stocktake and prepare for the submission of updated nationally determined contribu-tions in 2025,aligning with the 1.5 ℃ temperature control target for 2035.On the other hand,China should continue to leverage its ze-ro-carbon industries to lead global climate change action while expanding its national development rights and international communica-tion capacity.关键词
全球盘点/转轨别离/化石燃料/典型利益群体Key words
global stocktake/transition away/fossil fuel/typical interest group分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
周亚敏,潘家华..《巴黎协定》下第一次全球盘点的进程与成果解析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(1):17-26,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金专项项目"面向碳中和的中国经济转型模式构建研究"(批准号:72140001) （批准号:72140001）
国家电网科学技术项目"考虑安全成本内部化的电力市场规制定价理论创新与模型方法研究"(批准号:SGSDJY00JHJS2310102). （批准号:SGSDJY00JHJS2310102）
