可持续框架下中国省际碳排放权分配研究OA北大核心

The establishment of a scientific and reasonable carbon emission rights allocation scheme aligned with China's national conditions is a strong guarantee for ensuring the stable,healthy,and orderly operation of China's carbon market.Based on China's 2030 carbon intensity target and'dual control'targets for reaching peak carbon emissions,this study developed a provincial carbon emission rights allocation model incorporating five dimensions of a sustainable framework:human,nature,material,economy,and society.The model was used to effectively allocate carbon quotas across 30 provinces from 2022 to 2035,aiming to promote China's 2030 carbon re-duction'dual control'targets.The research results showed that:① Under the'medium speed growth,high speed emission reduction'scenario,the total national carbon emission rights allocation calculated represented the optimal choice to meet the'dual control'tar-gets of carbon emission reduction.The total allocation measured in this scenario not only met these targets but also aligned best with China's current context,as it emphasized steady development while significantly enhancing emission reduction intensity.② The amount of carbon emission rights varied significantly among 30 provinces in China.By 2030,the total quotas of the top five provinces would all exceed 5.60 billion t,while the total quotas of the bottom five provinces would not reach 1.90 billion t.③ The national distri-bution of carbon emission rights showed a'low in the west and high in the east'pattern,with a'stepped'spatial distribution that in-creased from the northwestern inland regions to the eastern coast areas.The core quota group was mostly distributed in the eastern and southeastern coastal areas,while the key group was predominantly distributed in the eastern and southern regions.The moderate group was primarily distributed in the central-eastern,southwestern,and southeastern regions.The observation group was mostly located in the northeastern and central regions,while the promotion group was mainly located in the northern and northwestern regions.④ The quotas for all provinces would decline after reaching the peak in 2030,with the average annual change from 2030 to 2035 being less than that from 2025 to 2030.Accordingly,some policy suggestions are proposed,such as establishing provincial differentiated distribu-tion schemes to improve the national carbon trading market,implementing annual quota management to achieve target quota levels,and developing provincial allocation mechanisms to promote the coordinated regional development.