中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(1)：50-65,16.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20241005
可持续框架下中国省际碳排放权分配研究
China's provincial carbon emission rights allocation under the sustainable framework:based on the 2030 carbon emission reduction dual control targets
摘要
Abstract
The establishment of a scientific and reasonable carbon emission rights allocation scheme aligned with China's national conditions is a strong guarantee for ensuring the stable,healthy,and orderly operation of China's carbon market.Based on China's 2030 carbon intensity target and'dual control'targets for reaching peak carbon emissions,this study developed a provincial carbon emission rights allocation model incorporating five dimensions of a sustainable framework:human,nature,material,economy,and society.The model was used to effectively allocate carbon quotas across 30 provinces from 2022 to 2035,aiming to promote China's 2030 carbon re-duction'dual control'targets.The research results showed that:① Under the'medium speed growth,high speed emission reduction'scenario,the total national carbon emission rights allocation calculated represented the optimal choice to meet the'dual control'tar-gets of carbon emission reduction.The total allocation measured in this scenario not only met these targets but also aligned best with China's current context,as it emphasized steady development while significantly enhancing emission reduction intensity.② The amount of carbon emission rights varied significantly among 30 provinces in China.By 2030,the total quotas of the top five provinces would all exceed 5.60 billion t,while the total quotas of the bottom five provinces would not reach 1.90 billion t.③ The national distri-bution of carbon emission rights showed a'low in the west and high in the east'pattern,with a'stepped'spatial distribution that in-creased from the northwestern inland regions to the eastern coast areas.The core quota group was mostly distributed in the eastern and southeastern coastal areas,while the key group was predominantly distributed in the eastern and southern regions.The moderate group was primarily distributed in the central-eastern,southwestern,and southeastern regions.The observation group was mostly located in the northeastern and central regions,while the promotion group was mainly located in the northern and northwestern regions.④ The quotas for all provinces would decline after reaching the peak in 2030,with the average annual change from 2030 to 2035 being less than that from 2025 to 2030.Accordingly,some policy suggestions are proposed,such as establishing provincial differentiated distribu-tion schemes to improve the national carbon trading market,implementing annual quota management to achieve target quota levels,and developing provincial allocation mechanisms to promote the coordinated regional development.关键词
碳排放权/碳强度/碳达峰/可持续框架/碳配额Key words
carbon emission right/carbon intensity/reaching peak carbon emissions/sustainable framework/carbon quota分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
邹秀清,郑卓琳,顾嘉雯,张燕..可持续框架下中国省际碳排放权分配研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(1):50-65,16.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目"多利益主体视角下土地财政风险形成机理及预警防控研究"(批准号:19GBL214). （批准号:19GBL214）
