碳价波动抑制还是促进企业绿色创新?OA北大核心

China's carbon market presents the typical feature of spot trading and compliance-driven trading,and the price volatility of spot carbon quota releases price and risk information of emission reduction.Generally,price signals have the potential to drive obligat-ed companies to enhance their R&D input and advance their green innovation.Conversely,risk signals may increase the uncertainty of green investment returns,which is not conducive to green innovation.Under the combined effects of these two mechanisms,the ques-tion of whether carbon price volatility promotes or inhibits green innovation in obligated companies is an issue worth addressing.This study focused on obligated companies in China's carbon trading pilots and constructed a threshold effect model and a negative binomial regression model to investigate the impacts and mechanisms of carbon price volatility on green innovation.The results showed that:① There was a significant single threshold effect of carbon price volatility on green innovation for obligated entities in the pilots,with a threshold value of 1.49.② When carbon price volatility was below the threshold,it promoted corporate green innovation,a finding that remained robust after a series of tests.However,when carbon price volatility exceeded the threshold,the positive effect significantly re-duced,leading to uncertainty about whether it inhibited green innovation,which warrants further investigation.③ Mechanism analysis revealed that,below the threshold,carbon price volatility was primarily driven by the price discovery function,which facilitated the for-mation of carbon price signals.This process enriched financing channels and increased R&D investment,thereby promoting corporate green innovation.④ The positive effects of price volatility on green innovation exhibited significant heterogeneity due to differences in the critical rules of carbon trading schemes,and it had a stronger promoting effect on obligated entities pilot regions led primarily by in-dustrial enterprises.Based on the above conclusions,the following policy recommendations are put forward:① Expedite the establish-ment of the futures market to enhance the carbon market stabilization mechanism.② Promote the development of green finance and di-versify financing channels for corporate green innovation.③ Optimize the rules for carbon allowance allocation and establish a mecha-nism for the direct formation of carbon prices.