中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(1)：205-219,15.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20240723
数字普惠金融对农业韧性的非线性影响机制
Nonlinear mechanisms of the impact of digital financial inclusion on agricultural resilience:threshold effect of agricultural production risk
摘要
Abstract
Improving agricultural resilience is of far-reaching strategic significance for ensuring China's national food security,promot-ing rural revitalization,and coping with climate change,thus contributing to the achievement of the goals of a powerful agricultural country and global sustainable development.This study empirically examined the nonlinear effects,mediating mechanism,and moderat-ing mechanism of digital financial inclusion on agricultural resilience,as well as the threshold effect of agricultural production risk,by constructing a nonlinear analytical model and using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2013 to 2023.The study found that:① There was an inverted U-shaped relationship between digital financial inclusion and agricultural resilience,which could improve ag-ricultural resilience within a specific range.② As a moderating variable,the village-merging policy enhanced the impact of digital fi-nancial inclusion on agricultural resilience.At the same time,farmers'risk-bearing showed a nonlinear mediating role.Digital financial inclusion affected the agricultural resilience by promoting the depth of use of agricultural insurance and investment in fixed assets,al-though the contribution of fixed asset investment to enhancing agricultural resilience was weaker.In areas where the village-merging policy was more comprehensively implemented,the expansion of agricultural production scale and intensive use of machinery and equipment helped to enhance the mediating role of fixed asset investment.③ Rural industrial integration played a positive mediating ef-fect in the impact of digital financial inclusion on agricultural resilience,indicating that digital financial inclusion could enhance agri-cultural resilience through rural industrial integration.④ The quantile regression results showed that the nonlinear relationship be-tween digital financial inclusion and agricultural resilience varied with the level of agricultural resilience.⑤ Analysis based on the co-efficient of variation of grain yield and efficiency index showed that the level of agricultural production risk influenced the critical point at which digital financial inclusion exerted a positive effect,which in turn played a key role in risk management.Accordingly,the study indicates that in the context of accelerating the construction of a powerful agricultural and financial country,promoting agricultural pro-duction development depends on the orderly transformation of the rural social structure and the enhancement of the risk-bearing capaci-ty of farm households.It also suggests systematically improving the comprehensive resilience of agriculture and rural areas in five as-pects:digital financial inclusion layout and services,rural social structure transformation,rural household risk-bearing capacity,inte-grated development of rural industries,and management of agricultural production risk threshold effect.This approach is conducive to laying a solid foundation for comprehensively promoting rural revitalization.关键词
数字普惠金融/农业韧性/合村并居/农业风险/三产融合/门槛效应Key words
digital financial inclusion/agricultural resilience/village consolidation/agricultural risk/industrial convergence/thresh-old effect分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
彭迪云,苏雅,冯怡..数字普惠金融对农业韧性的非线性影响机制[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(1):205-219,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"区域一体化背景下资本+技术融合驱动产业转移、结构升级并引领经济高质量发展研究"(批准号:72163021) （批准号:72163021）
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"基于整体性治理的中部地区一体化研究"(批准号:16JJD790022). （批准号:16JJD790022）
