中国司法鉴定Issue(1)：66-75,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1671-2072.2025.01.008
贝叶斯统计证据应用的实践探讨
A Practical Discussion on the Application of Bayesian Statistical Evidence:
摘要
Abstract
Bayesian statistical reasoning,based on prior knowledge and evidence information,conducts logical reasoning and probability estimation of the possibility of an event.It has developed not only internationally into a standard logical framework for the evaluation of forensic evidence,but also its likelihood rate model helps to make the formation of a judge's inner conviction explicit,standardized,and scientific,which is of great significance for preventing judges from abusing their discretionary power.In recent years,although the academic community in China has gradually increased its introduction and research on this type of statistical evidence or reasoning method,there seems to be an attitude of avoidance towards this type of evidence in judicial practice,and there is also a lack of relevant research.In contrast,although Britain is cautious about Bayesian statistical evidence,it has worked out a set of effective rules through trial and error in practice.Based on the current situations,we should try to promote the research by multiple occupational groups from different perspectives,and strive to reach a consensus on the application of Bayesian statistical evidence as soon as possible.关键词
贝叶斯定理/统计证据/判例研究/英国/司法鉴定Key words
Bayes'theorem/statistical evidence/case study/Britain/forensic appraisal分类
政治法律引用本文复制引用
张宇宽,贾佳秀..贝叶斯统计证据应用的实践探讨[J].中国司法鉴定,2025,(1):66-75,10.基金项目
重庆市社会科学基金规划项目(2023NDYB43) （2023NDYB43）
2024年陕西省社会科学基金年度项目(2024E026). （2024E026）
