中国卒中杂志2025，Vol.20Issue(2)：181-189,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-5765.2025.02.008
1990-2021年中国青少年和青年人群脑出血发病趋势及年龄-时期-队列模型分析
The Incidence Trend and Age-Period-Cohort Model Analysis of Intracerebral Hemorrhage in Adolescents and Young Adults in China from 1990 to 2021
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the incidence trend of intracerebral hemorrhage in adolescents and young adults in China from 1990 to 2021,and its effects influenced by age,period,and cohort factors,aiming to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of prevention and control strategies. Methods Based on global burden of disease(GBD)2021 data,According to the relevant regulations of the World Health Organization and the National Bureau of Statistics of China,this study analyzed the incidence of intracerebral hemorrhage in adolescents and young adults aged 15-39 years in China from 1990 to 2021.Joinpoint software was used to assess the standardized incidence trend and calculate the annual percentage change as well as the average annual percentage change(AAPC).Additionally,an age-period-cohort model was used to explore the influencing factors and predict future incidence trends. Results From 1990 to 2021,the overall and gender-standardized incidences of intracerebral hemorrhage in adolescents and young adults in China showed a decreasing trend(AAPC:total-1.31％,males-0.72％,females-2.29％,P＜0.001).Longitudinal data indicated that the number of cases,crude incidence,and standardized incidence were all higher in males than in females.The age-period-cohort model demonstrated that the incidence of intracerebral hemorrhage increased with age,peaking at ages 35-39 for males,and was 2.74 times higher than that of females of the same age.Furthermore,the risk of disease was lower in the 1997-2006 birth cohort(RR 0.72).It is predicted that by 2044,the standardized incidence for males will decrease by 10.01％,while for females it will increase by 3.84％.The number of cases,crude incidence,and standardized incidence in males are still 1.93-2.26 times that of females. Conclusions From 1990 to 2021,the incidence of intracerebral hemorrhage in adolescents and young adults in China has generally decreased,but it was higher in males than in females.Advancing age is an important risk factor for the disease,especially in males aged 35-39 years.The risk of disease is lower in recent periods and birth cohorts.It is predicted that by 2044,the incidence for males will continue to decrease,while it will slightly increase for females,but the incidence for males will still be higher than that for females.This suggests that in the future,efforts should be strengthened to prevent intracerebral hemorrhage in male adolescents and young adults and subsequently reducing the burden of the disease.关键词
脑出血/发病率/趋势分析/Joinpoint回归/年龄-时期-队列模型Key words
Intracerebral hemorrhage/Incidence/Trend analysis/Joinpoint regression/Age-period-cohort model分类
临床医学引用本文复制引用
丁月明,张冰莹,孙琳琳,吕思谕,金海,郝广志..1990-2021年中国青少年和青年人群脑出血发病趋势及年龄-时期-队列模型分析[J].中国卒中杂志,2025,20(2):181-189,9.基金项目
辽宁省科学技术计划项目(2022JH2/101500037) （2022JH2/101500037）
