浙江大学学报（医学版）2025，Vol.54Issue(1)：1-9,9.DOI:10.3724/zdxbyxb-2024-0385
中国中老年人黑色素瘤疾病负担及十年趋势预测
Disease burden and trend of melanoma among middle-aged and elderly population in China from 1990 to 2020,and prediction for 2022 to 2035
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the disease burden of melanoma among middle-aged and elderly populations in China,and to predict the future trend.Methods:Data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 were utilized to collect incidence and mortality rates of melanoma,disability-adjusted life years(DALYs),and corresponding age crude rates among the middle-aged and elderly population in China during 1990 and 2021.Additionally,the estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)was employed to assess the temporal trends.Age-period-cohort(APC)and Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)models were utilized to compute age,period,and cohort effects on incidence and mortality rates of melanoma,as well as to predict future trends up to 2035.Results:During 1990-2021,the incidence rate of melanoma for males was higher than that for females among the middle-aged and elderly population in China,and the overall incidence rate increased annually with an EAPC of 2.13(1.90-2.36),while the overall mortality rate and DALY rate showed a declining trend with an EAPC of-0.28(-0.41--0.15)and-0.54(-0.68--0.41),respectively.The results of the APC model analysis revealed that age effects on both incidence and mortality rates of melanoma in China's middle-aged and elderly population were significant,with both increasing with age.Period and cohort effects showed an upward trend for incidence rates but a downward trend for mortality rates.Moreover,the period and cohort effects for mortality rates were not significant among females.In the BAPC prediction model,the number of incidences of melanoma in middle-aged and elderly people in China would increase dramatically.By 2035,the number of incidence cases is expected to reach approximately 9600(males)and 10 300(females),corresponding to an incidence rate of 2.66/105 and 2.67/105,respectively.The number of deaths is projected to be about 2600(males)and 3500(females)by 2035,corresponding to a mortality rate of 0.72/105 and 0.91/105,respectively.Conclusion:The disease burden of melanoma among the middle-aged and elderly population in China remains substantial and is expected to increase over the next decade.关键词
黑色素瘤/中老年人/中国/疾病负担/趋势分析Key words
Melanoma/Middle-aged and elderly/China/Disease burden/Trend analysis分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
关律昕,甘子沁,黄广涛,侯素春,吕艳思..中国中老年人黑色素瘤疾病负担及十年趋势预测[J].浙江大学学报（医学版）,2025,54(1):1-9,9.基金项目
深圳大学总医院海雅青年科学家基金(2024-HY004) （2024-HY004）
高水平医院资金(4004050) This work was supported by the Haiya Young Scientist Foundation of Shenzhen University General Hospital(2024-HY004)and Shenzhen High-level Hospital Construction Fund(4004050) （4004050）
