中南大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.56Issue(2)：575-585,11.DOI:10.11817/j.issn.1672-7207.2025.02.014
基于贝叶斯修正的锈蚀RC结构保护层开裂时间预测
Prediction of cracking time of concrete cover in corroded reinforced concrete structures based on Bayesian updating
摘要
Abstract
Due to the measurement errors in corrosion current density and the significant uncertainty in predicting corrosion current density by using physical models,in order to quantify the uncertainty of the physical model and accurately predict the cracking time of concrete cover in corroded reinforced concrete(RC)structures caused by uneven corrosion of rebars,a prediction method for the cracking time of concrete cover in corroded RC structures by using Bayesian updating was proposed.Firstly,the Bayesian method was used to infer the parameters of the corrosion current density physical model during the corrosion cracking process of RC structures combined with experimental results.The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm in the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method was used for sampling to obtain the posterior distribution of the parameters.Then,utilizing the posterior distribution to propagate the uncertainty of the parameters,a corrosion current density prediction model was obtained.Finally,using the equivalence of the mass of rust products,the non-uniform corrosion model of the rebar was transformed into a uniformly corroded thick-walled cylindrical model to calculate the stress distribution in the concrete cover.The cracking time of the concrete cover was predicted through the relationship between the amount of rebar loss and the predicted value of the corrosion current density.The effectiveness of the proposed method in predicting the cracking time of concrete cover in corroded RC structures was validated by using two test specimens.The results indicate that the corrosion current density prediction model based on Bayesian updating can effectively predict the magnitude of the corrosion current density,and it can predict the cracking time of cover in corroded RC structure effectively.The error between the predicted crack initiation time and the measured value is less than 5％.关键词
锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构/保护层开裂/开裂时间/非均匀锈蚀/贝叶斯方法Key words
corroded RC structures/cracking of concrete cover/cracking time/uneven corrosion/Bayesian method分类
土木建筑引用本文复制引用
黄天立,李群,陈龙,陈华鹏,阳波,何益斌..基于贝叶斯修正的锈蚀RC结构保护层开裂时间预测[J].中南大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,56(2):575-585,11.基金项目
江西省重点研发计划"揭榜挂帅"项目(20223BBH80002) （20223BBH80002）
长沙市科技计划重大专项(kh2401024)(Project(20223BBH80002)supported by the Key Project for Scientific and Technological Cooperation Scheme of Jiangxi Province （kh2401024）
Project(kh2401024)supported by the Major Project of Changsha Science and Technology Plan) （kh2401024）
