中南民族大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.44Issue(3)：319-326,8.DOI:10.20056/j.cnki.ZNMDZK.20240726
武汉市极端降雨与气候因子的响应研究
A study on the response of extreme rainfall in Wuhan to climatic factors
摘要
Abstract
Based on the data from the meteorological station in Wuhan from 1961 to 2020,seven extreme rainfall indices were selected to explore the temporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation events in Wuhan by linear regression analysis,Mann-Kendall test,moving average method and R/S analysis,and the responses to shifts in diverse climatic factors were examined.The results showed that:(1)The annual precipitation in Wuhan ranged from 647 mm to 2009 mm,with an average increase of about 4.46 mm per year.Except for R95c,other extreme precipitation indices such as PRCPTOT,SDII,RX1day,RX5day,R95p,and R95d showed a significant upward trend.(2)The average summer precipitation accounted for 42.81%of the annual precipitation,with an annual growth rate of 2.64 mm,making it the season of most concentrated precipitation throughout the year.Winter precipitation accounted for only 9.78%of the annual precipitation,with a growth rate of 1.68 mm‧a-1.(3)Except for R95c and R95d,other extreme precipitation indices such as PRCPTOT,SDII,RX1day,RX5day,and R95p had a positive correlation with the average temperature.The cumulative sunshine duration in each season exhibited a notable negative correlation with the average precipitation in the corresponding period,and all kinds of extreme precipitation indices also showed a negative correlation with the annual cumulative sunshine duration.(4)Through R/S analysis,it was predicted that the precipitation in August,September,November,and December would show a trend opposite to the past,while the precipitation in January,February,March,June,July,and October would maintain the previous trends,and the precipitation in April and May showed a random walk trend.The results indicated that the extreme precipitation and the number of days with extreme precipitation in Wuhan had significantly increased in the past 60 years,but the yearly precipitation intensity did not significantly increase,indicating that extreme precipitation were more concentrated.The frequency of extreme precipitation events was positively correlated to temperature and negatively correlated to sunshine duration(radiation).关键词
武汉/极端降雨/气温/日照/MK检验法/R/S分析法Key words
Wuhan/extreme rainfall/temperature/sunshine/Mann-Kendall test/R/S analysis分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
车旭恒,朱君君,张立维,刘豪杰,周婉棋,杜鸿..武汉市极端降雨与气候因子的响应研究[J].中南民族大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,44(3):319-326,8.基金项目
湖北省自然科学基金资助项目(2023AFB782) （2023AFB782）
中南民族大学大学生创新创业训练计划(20230100017) （20230100017）
