巢湖学院学报2024，Vol.26Issue(6)：20-25,6.DOI:10.12152/j.issn.1672-2868.2024.06.004
基于SARIMA模型的合肥市近地面臭氧浓度预测
Prediction of Near-surface Ozone Concentration in Hefei Based on the SARIMA Model
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,urban ozone pollution has become increasingly prominent,making the prediction of ozone concentrations crucial for early prevention and control measures.In Hefei,the number of days with ozone as the primary pollutant is increasing,and ozone has now surpassed PM2.5 as the leading contributor to air quality degrada-tion.In response,this study focuses on Hefei and uses the daily average ozone concentrations from January 2022 to June 2023 to create a time series.A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(SARIMA)model is then developed to forecast the ozone levels for the summer of 2023 and the model's performance is evaluated.The re-sults indicate that the model's fitted curves basically align with the actual measurements,with the relative errors of the three-day short-term forecasts remaining within 20%.The model's root-mean-square-error(RMSE)is 21.18 μg·m-3,and the goodness-of-fit R2 reaches 0.904 3,demonstrating robust fitting and predictive capabilities.These ozone forecasts provide a scientific basis for environmental protection efforts,support decision-making in urban planning,and positively impact public health.关键词
臭氧浓度/时间序列/SARIMA模型/季节性/短期预测Key words
ozone concentration/time series/SARIMA model/seasonality/short-term forecast分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
许成丽,郑朝阳,项衍,吕立慧,刘人龙..基于SARIMA模型的合肥市近地面臭氧浓度预测[J].巢湖学院学报,2024,26(6):20-25,6.基金项目
安徽高校自然科学研究项目(项目编号:KJ2021A0998) （项目编号:KJ2021A0998）
合肥学院人才科研基金项目(项目编号:20RC23) （项目编号:20RC23）
合肥学院基础教研室示范项目(项目编号:2020hfujyssf02) （项目编号:2020hfujyssf02）
