摘要
Abstract
This paper reviews the historical context and lessons of the global oil crises and explores the establishment of a quantitative evaluation model for oil security tailored to China's specific national conditions.The research framework identifies 10 sub-indicators categorized under two primary dimensions and measures China's oil security by a quantitative formula.It quantitatively analyzes China's oil security situation from 2023 to 2060 under three different scenarios:steady transition,accelerated transition,and extreme conditions,finds that the period around 2025 represents the most critical stage for China's oil security,and the oil security situation is expected to improve steadily with the progressive implementation of the"dual carbon goals"reaching a more stable state by 2060.It also proposes countermeasures to safeguard China's oil security,including mitigating the impact of international oil price fluctuations on China's oil import costs to the greatest extent possible,minimizing excessive reliance on external oil supplies to the utmost degree,and gradually reducing China's over-dependence on the international oil market through comprehensive and sustained efforts by the state,enterprises,and society,focusing on supply,demand,and international cooperation.关键词
中国石油安全/评价指标体系/石油安全度/定量评价Key words
China's oil security/evaluation index system/oil security degree/quantitative evaluation分类
管理科学
