国际石油经济2025，Vol.33Issue(3)：60-66,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2025.03.008
国际原油市场2024年回顾和2025年展望
Review of the international crude oil market in 2024 and outlook for 2025
张庆辰 1张虹雨 1仇玄 1李想 1高洁1
作者信息
摘要
Abstract
The international crude prices fluctuated significantly in 2024,rising in the first half year on bullish demand forecasts and tight supply,before retreating as China's consumption growth disappointed and OPEC+unwound its voluntary production cuts the anticipated reversal in the supply-demand fundamentals led to a downward fluctuation in oil prices.Annual demand increased by 0.8 million barrels per day(mb/d),marginally outpaced by a 1.2 mb/d supply expansion,maintaining equilibrium but depleting global inventories to seven-year low.In 2025,moderating demand growth and sustained supply hikes are expected to rebuild stockpiles.Monetary tightening delays by the Fed amid persistent inflation could strengthen the USD,while easing geopolitical tensions could erode risk premiums.These factors are expected to drive Brent crude prices downward,averaging USD 69-74 per barrel.关键词
国际原油市场/需求/产量/库存/原油价格Key words
international crude oil market/demand/production/inventory/crude oil prices分类
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张庆辰,张虹雨,仇玄,李想,高洁..国际原油市场2024年回顾和2025年展望[J].国际石油经济,2025,33(3):60-66,7.
