国际石油经济2025，Vol.33Issue(3)：67-74,93,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2025.03.009
中国成品油市场2024年回顾与2025年展望
Review of China's refined oil market in 2024 and outlook for 2025
摘要
Abstract
In 2024,China's refined oil products market,driven by the Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking before 2030,reached a critical inflection point,with annual refined oil products consumption of 358.9 million tons,down 2.8%compared to the previous year.Gasoline consumption was 152 million tons,down 2.0%,entering a downward trajectory after reaching the peak,diesel consumption fell to 168 million tons,down 6.5%,the largest drop in recent years,and jet fuel consumption was 0.39 billion tons,up 13%from the previous year.The refining industry is undergoing a transition between old and new capacity,with traditional refining enterprises facing a new wave of capacity clearance.In 2025,demand for refined oil products is projected to follow a trend characterized by"two declines and one rise".Sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is approaching 50%,leading to an accelerated decline in gasoline consumption.Meanwhile,the ramp-up of infrastructure projects is helping to moderate the decline in diesel consumption.In addition,robust demand for both domestic and international air travel is driving sustained growth in aviation fuel consumption.China's total consumption of refined petroleum products is expected to reach 345 million tons in 2025,reflecting a 3.8%decline compared to 2024.While refining capacity continues to grow modestly,the potential for resource overcapacity is becoming increasingly pronounced.It is recommended that refining and chemical companies accelerate their product transition and market development to adapt to the new normal sustained declines in refined oil consumption.关键词
成品油/市场/消费/炼油能力/2024年回顾/2025年展望Key words
refined oil/market/consumption/refining capacity/review/outlook分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
孔劲媛,高鲁营,张虹雨,李嘉欣..中国成品油市场2024年回顾与2025年展望[J].国际石油经济,2025,33(3):67-74,93,9.
