摘要
Abstract
In 2021,the European gas market experienced a dramatic transformation,characterized by a significant tightening of supply and demand conditions and persistently high prices and the trend was further intensified by the outbreak of the Ukraine issue in 2022.In response,the European Union introduced the REPowerEU plan in May 2022,which has had a significant impact on the market and serves as a key guideline for the medium-term development of the European natural gas sector(2025-2030).On the demand side,Europe's natural gas consumption is expected to decline overall in the medium-term,with only the residential and commercial sectors showing potential for growth.On the supply side,Europe's domestically produced natural gas is expected to decline overall.Russian pipeline gas will continue to flow through the TurkStream,while pipeline transit through Ukraine may be partially restored,although the likelihood of reviving other pipelines remains low.Norwegian pipeline gas supplies are projected to remain stable,continuing to serve as a cornerstone of Europe's natural gas supply.In the medium term,Europe will still need to maintain LNG imports at a relatively high level to meet its energy demands.Considering the medium-term supply outlook for the international LNG market,the supply-demand in the European natural gas market is expected to ease gradually,leading to a decline in European gas prices.European LNG imports are expected to remain at a high level of around 100 million tons per year,ensuring sufficient supply to meet demand over the medium term.It is recommended that Chinese enterprises pay close attention to the medium-term dynamics in the European natural gas market and optimize their global LNG portfolio and trading strategies accordingly.关键词
欧洲天然气市场/国际LNG市场/"重新赋能欧盟"Key words
European gas market/global LNG market/REPower EU分类
管理科学
