国际老年医学杂志2025，Vol.46Issue(2)：162-168,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-7593.2025.02.007
老年2型糖尿病患者合并衰弱的危险因素分析及预测模型的建立
Analysis of risk factors of elderly patients with type 2 diabetes complicated with frailty and establishment of prediction model
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the risk factors of elderly patients with type 2 diabetes complicated with frailty,and con-struct a nomogram.Methods A total of 152 elderly type 2 diabetes patients admitted to General Hospital of Nothern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army of China from November 2023 to January 2024 were selected,including 106 in the training set and 46 in the validation set.Logistic regression model analysis was applied to screen for risk factors of frailty in elderly type 2 diabetes patients;R software was applied to draw nomogram,ROC curve,calibration curve and Hosmer Lemeshow goodness of fit test were used to assess no-mogram performance.Results Among the 106 elderly type 2 diabetes patients,33 cases(31.13%)had frailty,and 73 cases(68.87%)did not have frailty.The results of logistic regression analysis showed that gender is female,stroke,depressive symptoms and high risk of falls were independent risk factors for comorbid frailty in elderly type 2 diabetes patients(P<0.05).The evaluation of train-ing set discrimination:the area under the ROC curve was 0.840(95%CI:0.765-0.915).Consistency of training set:the slope of the calibration curve was close to 1,and the Hosmer Lemeshow goodness of fit test shows good consistency between the predicted probabil-ity of the nomogram and the actual observed results(P<0.05).Verification of cluster discrimination evaluation:the area under the ROC curve is 0.933(95%CI:0.864-1.000).Verification set consistency evaluation:the slope of the calibration curve is close to 1,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test shows good consistency between the predicted probability of the nomogram and the actual observed results.Conclusion Elderly type 2 diabetes patients are prone to comorbid frailty,with gender is female,stroke,depressive symptoms and high risk of falls are associated with comorbid frailty in elderly type 2 diabetes patients,and a nomogram constructed based on the above four independent risk factors has good predictive efficacy for comorbid frailty in elderly type 2 diabetes patients.关键词
2型糖尿病/衰弱/危险因素/预测模型Key words
Type 2 diabetes/Frailty/Risk factors/Prediction model引用本文复制引用
王卓,郑海峰,梁琳琅..老年2型糖尿病患者合并衰弱的危险因素分析及预测模型的建立[J].国际老年医学杂志,2025,46(2):162-168,7.基金项目
辽宁省科技计划项目(2023-MS-038) （2023-MS-038）
