焊管2025，Vol.48Issue(3)：35-43,9.DOI:10.19291/j.cnki.1001-3938.2025.03.006
系统性视角下的燃气管道灾害多因素耦合理论研究
Multi-factor Coupling Theory Research of Gas Pipeline Disaster from Systematic Perspective
摘要
Abstract
Based on disaster system theory and multi-factor coupling theory,the definition,characteristics,classification and effects of multi-factor coupling in gas pipeline disaster system are discussed on the basis of clarifying the connotation,formation mechanism and systematic composition of disaster.Firstly,it discusses the connotation of"disaster"from the perspective of etymology,and expounds the causes and necessary conditions of disaster from three aspects:internal and external inducement,main body and bearing capacity.Secondly,combined with the theory of disaster systems,the gas pipeline disaster system is deconstructed into four subsystems:disaster pregnant environment,disaster factors,disaster bearing body and disaster condition.The multi-factor coupling effect is divided into two types:internal coupling of subsystems and coupling between subsystems,and the stage characteristics of coupling occurrence are further clarified.Thirdly,the randomness,abruptness,nonlinearity and irreversibility of multi-factor coupling in disaster system are expounded,and the effects of coupling on disaster are analyzed from the aspects of"trigger ability"and"severity".Finally,the multi-factor coupling effect was divided according to the influence intensity,direction of action and type of factors.The research shows that the promotion and inhibition of multiple factors within and between the four disaster subsystems are responsible for the diversity and complexity of disaster evolution.In disaster prevention and control work,it is necessary to accurately grasp the initial region of multi-factor coupling and identify the key coupling points,taking into account the dual perspectives of"chain break"and"decoupling".关键词
系统性视角/燃气管道/灾害系统/多因素耦合/理论研究Key words
systematic perspective/gas pipeline/disaster system/multi-factor coupling/theoretical research分类
石油、天然气工程引用本文复制引用
李乔楚..系统性视角下的燃气管道灾害多因素耦合理论研究[J].焊管,2025,48(3):35-43,9.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"能源革命驱动下的天然气产业高质量发展路径研究"(项目编号22&ZD105) （项目编号22&ZD105）
国家社会科学基金西部项目"'双碳'目标下我国城市群能源系统碳达峰预测及差异化减排路径研究"(项目编号22XGL019). （项目编号22XGL019）
