生态与农村环境学报2025，Vol.41Issue(3)：295-307,13.DOI:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2024.0265
基于参数优化MaxEnt模型的气候变化下青头潜鸭(Aythya baeri)在长江流域的潜在适生区预测
Predicting the Potential Suitable Areas of Aythya baeri in the Yangtze River Basin under the Climate Change Sce-nario Based on Parameter Optimization MaxEnt Model
摘要
Abstract
Researching the impact of climate change on endangered species is important for the long-term conservation and management of species.Taking Aythya baeri as the research object,the study adopted climate factor data,terrain data,and distribution data of Aythya baeri in the Yangtze River Basin from CMIP6(coupled model intercomparison project phase 6),applied ENMeval data package in R language to optimize the RM(regularization multiplier)and FC(feature combi-nation),and partitioned the data independently.The optimal MaxEnt model was used to predict the spatial distribution pattern and its centroid changes of potential suitability of Aythya baeri in the Yangtze River Basin in three periods(2041-2060,2061-2070,2081-2100)and four different climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5)under contemporary climate conditions and future climate change.The results show that:(1)Based on the ranking of con-tribution rate and factor response curve of various historical periods,it is evident that dominant environmental factors af-fecting the suitable habitat of Aythya baeri in the Yangtze River Basin are altitude(ELE),annual average temperature(bio1)and coefficient of variation of precipitation(bio15).(2)Currently,the most suitable distribution area of Aythya baeri in the Yangtze River Basin is mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the northeastern part of the Sichuan Basin,with scattered populations found in some wetlands around lakes in Yunnan Prov-ince.(3)In the future,different climate scenarios will have diverse impacts on the potential distribution of Aythya baeri,with an increasing trend in the high-suitability areas compared to the present.Under the SSP3-7.0 climate scenario,the potential total suitable habitat area for Aythya baeri in the Yangtze River Basis tends to steadily increase with years.Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,there appears to be a reversing trend in both the addition and loss of suitable habitats from 2081 to 2100.Compared to other climate scenarios,the total suitable habitat area under SSP2-4.5 tends to decrease gradually each year,with negative growth rates in both addition and loss rates.Meanwhile,the centroid shift results indicate that the dis-tribution center of Aythya baeri is shifting westward.This study explored the predictive analysis method for the potential suitable habitats of Aythya baeri in a larger regional range under future climate scenarios,and revealed the impact of cli-mate change on their suitable habitats.The results can provide a scientific reference for the protection of bird habitats in the Yangtze River Basin and the establishment of corresponding species conservation strategies.关键词
青头潜鸭/MaxEnt模型/ENMeval数据包/适生区预测/气候变化/濒危物种/第六次国际气候耦合模式比较计划Key words
Aythya baeri/MaxEnt model/ENMeval data package/prediction of suitable area/climate change/endan-gered species/CMIP6分类
生物学引用本文复制引用
刘晶晶,张舟,张权,姜琳琳,杨朝辉..基于参数优化MaxEnt模型的气候变化下青头潜鸭(Aythya baeri)在长江流域的潜在适生区预测[J].生态与农村环境学报,2025,41(3):295-307,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41701477) （41701477）
