生态与农村环境学报2025，Vol.41Issue(3)：336-348,13.DOI:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2024.0498
县域国土空间碳排放时空演变特征与模拟研究:以四川省邛崃市为例
Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Simulation of County Territorial Carbon Emission:Take Qionglai City of Sichuan Province as an Example
摘要
Abstract
County-level administrative regions play a critical role in China's carbon control and emission reduction efforts,with territorial space serving as a key strategic area for implementing these tasks.This study,based on socio-economic and land use data from Qionglai City between 2010 and 2020,employs trend analysis,spatial autocorrelation analysis,and the Hurst index to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon emissions in this county-level region.The findings are as follows:(1)From 2010 to 2020,Qionglai City's total carbon emissions followed a pattern of"slow growth-rapid growth,"with emissions from various territorial spaces also exhibiting two distinct phases.Notably,carbon emissions from rural pro-duction spaces consistently accounted for over 70%of total emissions in the region;(2)Over the past decade,the spatial differentiation pattern of"high in the east,low in the west"has become increasingly pronounced,showing the emergence of"polycentric hotspot agglomerations"and"cold spot contiguities";(3)A majority(99.1%)of Qionglai City's territo-rial space exhibits positive sustainability in carbon emission trends,suggesting that emissions will continue along the 2010-2020 trajectory,while only 0.53%of the region—primarily in Huilong Town's hilly areas and along the Nanhe Riv-er—will experience a shift from growth to decline in carbon emissions.This study provides valuable data and insights for low-carbon territorial space planning at the county level.关键词
碳排放/时空演变/国土空间/Hurst指数Key words
carbon emission/spatiotemporal evolution/territorial space/Hurst index分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
刘志彬,吴玺,余东芮,李军,余向克,高雪松,欧定华,邓云思..县域国土空间碳排放时空演变特征与模拟研究:以四川省邛崃市为例[J].生态与农村环境学报,2025,41(3):336-348,13.基金项目
四川省哲学社会科学基金(SCJJ23ND161) （SCJJ23ND161）
