人口与经济Issue(2)：1-15,15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2025.02.001
人口空间集聚红利的概念、产生机制与实证检验
The Concept,Generation Mechanism and Empirical Test of Population Spatial Agglomeration Dividend:An Analysis Based on Panel Data of 285 Cities in China
摘要
Abstract
With the advancement of China's urbanisation process,the trend of population agglomeration from small and medium-sized cities to large cities and urban agglomerations still exists.The rational utilization of the"population spatial agglomeration dividend"plays an important role in promoting the high-quality development of China's economy.This paper first defines the concept of"population spatial agglomeration dividend",then analyses the mechanism of its generation and establishes a spatial econometric regression model on the basis of mathematical derivation to conduct empirical research and testing on 285 cities in China from 2000 to 2021.It is found that:1)During the opportunity window period of spatial population agglomeration,China's spatial population agglomeration can generate a significant demographic dividend.2)The demographic dividend of spatial population concentration shows an inverted U-shape change as the degree of spatial population agglomeration increases.3)Compared with small and medium-sized cities with a permanent resident population of 1 million or less,large cities,megacities and super cities with a permanent resident population of 5 million or more can more effectively obtain the demographic dividend of spatial population concentration.4)Spatial population concentration has a direct positive impact on local economic development,but which may also have a certain siphoning effect on the surrounding areas.Against the background of the gradual decline of traditional demographic dividends in China,the urbanisation process still has huge room for development.It is necessary to fully grasp the window of opportunity for China's population to gather in cities,guide the population by category and implement policies,release the dividend of population spatial agglomeration as soon as possible during the window of opportunity for population spatial agglomeration,with aim to promote the synergistic and high-quality development of the central city and the surrounding areas,and build a reasonably distributed modern human resource system.关键词
人口空间集聚红利/城镇化/人口红利Key words
spatial agglomeration of population dividend/urbanisation/population dividend分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
童玉芬,杨艳飞..人口空间集聚红利的概念、产生机制与实证检验[J].人口与经济,2025,(2):1-15,15.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目"从人口发展新常态到人口高质量发展的引领机制与实现路径"(24ARK001). （24ARK001）
