人口与经济Issue(2)：16-30,15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2025.02.002
延迟退休、生育支持政策与人口出生率
Delayed Retirement,Fertility Support and Birth Rates
摘要
Abstract
Based on a three-period overlapping generations(OLG)model that incorporates statutory retirement age,intergenerational childcare,endogenous fertility rates,and fertility subsidies,this study examines the combined effects of fertility support policies and delayed retirement policies.Two analytical approaches are adopted:policy experiments based on comparative static analysis and numerical simulations calibrated with empirical parameters.Among them,based on the policy experiment method,this paper finds that fertility support policies play a positive role in increasing fertility rates,particularly by mitigating the adverse effects of delayed retirement—such as increased childcare costs for young parents on fertility.Numerical simulations further reveal three key insights:1)The combination of delayed retirement and fertility support policies can simultaneously boost fertility rates and improve household welfare;2)Measures such as"developing childcare service systems""promoting shifts in fertility attitudes""introducing special tax deductions for infant care and education expenses"and"supporting second-and third-child policies"can enhance fertility rates to varying extents,where"developing childcare service systems"has the most significant impact;3)Societies with low fertility preferences exhibit a higher acceptance of delayed retirement policies.关键词
生育支持政策/延迟退休/人口出生率Key words
fertility support policies/delayed retirement/birth rates分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
孙思栋,高文书..延迟退休、生育支持政策与人口出生率[J].人口与经济,2025,(2):16-30,15.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"数字时代的劳动力市场摩擦及其对劳动力要素配置效率影响研究"(24CJY113). （24CJY113）
